[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 18 Mar 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 19 10:30:21 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed over
the last 24 hours. Three C-class flares have been observed today,
the largest being a C4.7 flare (1533UT) from region 2010(S14E50).
Solar wind speed gradually declined from 290 km/s to 320 km/s
and the Bz component of IMF varied mostly between +/-5nT during
the UT day today, staying southwards for relatively longer periods
of time in first half of the day. There is a small possibility
of a weak glancing blow from the CME (of 16 March) late on 19
March or early on 20 March. Solar activity is expected to stay
at low levels with a small chance of M-class activity for the
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 12211111
Cocos Island 3 12111110
Darwin 3 12111111
Townsville 4 12211111
Learmonth 3 12111110
Alice Springs 3 12101111
Norfolk Island 2 01211110
Culgoora 4 12211111
Gingin 4 11202121
Camden 4 12211111
Canberra 4 12212110
Launceston 5 12312111
Hobart 4 12212111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Mar :
Macquarie Island 7 01423200
Casey 8 23322221
Mawson 9 32212332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 18 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 2 0000 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Mar 4 Quiet
20 Mar 4 Quiet
21 Mar 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels on 18 March.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs remained enhanced in most locations on 18 March.
Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the next few
days with small chance of SWFs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Mar 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Mar 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were above predicted monthly values for
18 March and are expected to continue above predicted monthly
values for the next few days. There is small chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 306 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 25800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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