[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 17 Mar 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 18 10:30:23 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed over
the last 24 hours. Six C-class flares have been observed today,
the largest being a C2 flare (0045UT) from region 2002(S18W58).
Solar wind speed gradually declined from 320 km/s to 300 km/s
and the Bz component of IMF varied mostly between +/-4nT during
this period. Solar activity is expected to stay at low levels
with a small chance of M-class activity for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 10000101
Cocos Island 1 11000101
Darwin 1 11010101
Townsville 2 11110101
Learmonth 1 10000101
Alice Springs 1 10000102
Norfolk Island 0 00000010
Culgoora 1 00010111
Gingin 1 10000102
Camden 1 10000011
Canberra 0 00000001
Launceston 1 10110011
Hobart 0 00100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 12310101
Mawson 9 31100125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 2 0110 0110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Mar 4 Quiet
19 Mar 4 Quiet
20 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels on 17 March.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs remained enhanced in most locations on 17 March.
Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the next few
days with the small chance of SWFs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Mar 134
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Mar 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Mar 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Mar 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were above predicted monthly values for
17 March and are expected to continue above predicted monthly
values for the next few days. There is the small chance of SWFs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 38900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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