[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 15 Mar 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 16 10:30:19 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 139/93


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Mar             17 Mar             18 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be mostly Low with the 
small chance of M-class flare activity. Solar wind speeds declined 
slowly during 15 March and are expected to mostly remain below 
450 km/s for the next few days. CME activity observed during 
15 March is not expected to be geoeffective.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110001
      Cocos Island         1   11110010
      Darwin               2   11110011
      Townsville           3   21110012
      Learmonth            2   21110001
      Alice Springs        2   21100001
      Norfolk Island       1   10000011
      Culgoora             1   11110001
      Gingin               2   21110011
      Camden               1   11110001
      Canberra             1   11100001
      Launceston           2   21110001
      Hobart               1   11110001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     0   10000000
      Casey                9   23431021
      Mawson              13   42221044

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   1221 2101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Mar     6    Quiet
18 Mar     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels are expected over the 
next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to continue to be mostly above predicted 
monthly values for the next few days with the small chance of 
SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Mar   128

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      121
Mar      79
Apr      79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Mar   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Mar   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Mar   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Observed MUFs were above predicted monthly values for 
15 March and are expected to continue above predicted monthly 
values for the next few days. There is the small chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 453 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   128000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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