[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 14 Mar 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 15 10:30:16 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 144/98


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Mar             16 Mar             17 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: A number of solar regions have shown minor activity 
during 14 March. Mostly Low to moderate activity is expected 
for 15 March with small chance of X-class flares. CME activity 
observed during 14 March is not expected to be geoeffective. 
Solar wind speeds declined during 14 March down to approximately 
400 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain mildly elevated 
during the next couple of days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22112101
      Cocos Island         2   21101100
      Darwin               3   22111101
      Townsville           4   22212101
      Learmonth            5   32112201
      Alice Springs        3   22111101
      Norfolk Island       3   12112011
      Culgoora             4   22112111
      Gingin               5   22212201
      Camden               4   22112111
      Canberra             3   12112001
      Launceston           6   22222112
      Hobart               5   22222101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     4   11123100
      Casey               13   44422111
      Mawson              15   32423324

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   4332 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Mar     6    Quiet
16 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels are expected over the 
next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to continue to be mostly above predicted 
monthly values for the next few days with the chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Mar   125

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      121
Mar      79
Apr      79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Mar   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Mar   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Mar   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Observed MUFs were above predicted monthly values for 
14 March and are expected to continue above predicted monthly 
values for the next few days. There is the chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 369 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:   108000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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