[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 March 14 issued 2334 UT on 13 Mar 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 14 10:34:04 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    1919UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 148/102


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Mar             15 Mar             16 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity reached moderate levels during 13 March 
due to an isolated M1.2 flare from region 1996 towards the west 
limb. Solar activity is expected to be mostly Low to Moderate 
for 14 March with the small chance of X-class flares. LASCO and 
STEREO satellite imagery was patchy around the times of 2 disappearing 
solar filaments (DSFs) so analysis of any associated CME activity 
is difficult at this time, however, due to the locations geoeffective 
CMEs are unlikely. No other geoeffective CME activity was observed 
during 13 March. Solar wind speeds increased towards 500 km/s 
towards the end of the UT day of 13 March. Solar wind speeds 
are expected to remain mildly elevated for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 
with an isolated Minor storm period at high latitudes at the 
start of the UT day

Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   32311111
      Cocos Island         4   22211110
      Darwin               5   32211111
      Townsville           8   33312112
      Learmonth            7   42211112
      Alice Springs        6   32311111
      Norfolk Island       6   32211121
      Culgoora             7   32312111
      Gingin               8   42211122
      Camden               7   32312111
      Canberra             6   32212111
      Launceston           7   32322111
      Hobart               6   32311111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     7   22233200
      Casey               11   34422111
      Mawson              16   54323311

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   1000 1113     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Mar     6    Quiet
16 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity increased slightly early in the 
UT day of 13 March in response to a sustained period of southward 
IMF, with some active levels across the Australian region and 
an isolated Minor Storm period at high latitudes. The remainder 
of the UT day was predominantly Quiet. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled 
levels are expected for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to continue to be mostly above predicted 
monthly values for the next few days with the chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Mar   151

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      121
Mar      79
Apr      79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Mar   140    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Mar   140    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Mar   140    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 12 
March and is current for 13-14 Mar. Observed MUFs were above 
predicted monthly values for 13 March and are expected to continue 
above predicted monthly values for the next few days. There is 
the chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 286 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    17500 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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