[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 March 14 issued 2341 UT on 12 Mar 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 13 10:41:28 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.5 1105UT possible lower European
M9.3 2234UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was high during 12 March due to an M9.3
flare observed at 2234UT towards the west limb. Solar activity
is expected to be mostly Low to Moderate with the small chance
of X-class flare activity. A CME observed in LASCO C2 imagery
several hours after an M2-flare from region 1996 does not appear
to be associated with this flare or a front side event and is
therefore considered not to be geoeffective. No other geoeffective
CMEs were observed during 12 March. Solar wind speeds remained
relatively light during 12 March and are expected to remain around
these levels for the next few days. The solar wind IMF turned
mildly southward in the latter hours of the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 21111112
Cocos Island 2 21110110
Darwin 3 20110112
Townsville 4 21111122
Learmonth 3 21010112
Alice Springs 2 20000112
Norfolk Island 1 10000012
Culgoora 3 21011112
Gingin 3 21101112
Camden 3 11111112
Canberra 2 11001112
Launceston 4 11112122
Hobart 3 11111112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 10001001
Casey 9 33321122
Mawson 13 43121234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0001 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Mar 12 Quiet to Unsettled with the chance of Active
levels
14 Mar 6 Quiet
15 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: A sustained period of southward IMF during the latter
hours of the UT day of 12 March is likely to result in slightly
elevated geomagnetic activity in the early part of the UT day
of 13 March otherwise mostly Quiet conditions are expected for
the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to continue to be mostly above predicted
monthly values for the next few days with the chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Mar 139
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 12
March and is current for 13-14 Mar. Observed MUFs were above
predicted monthly values for 12 March and are expected to continue
above predicted monthly values for the next few days. There is
the chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 311 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 43700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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