[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 March 14 issued 2335 UT on 11 Mar 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 12 10:35:49 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 10/2254UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M3.5 0350UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.7 1207UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate during 11 March with activity
predominantly from regions 1996 and 2002. The largest event was
an M3-flare at 0350UT. Solar activity is expected to be mostly
Low to Moderate with the small chance of X-class flare activity.
No geoeffective CMEs were observed during 11 March. Solar wind
parameters remained relatively quiet during 11 March and are
expected to remain around these levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 12111011
Cocos Island 1 11010000
Darwin 2 12110001
Townsville 2 02111011
Learmonth 4 13111002
Alice Springs 2 12111001
Norfolk Island 1 01010011
Culgoora 1 01011011
Gingin 1 11001011
Camden 3 12111011
Canberra 1 01011011
Launceston 3 12112011
Hobart 2 01112011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 6 23311111
Mawson 6 01111233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0012 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Mar 5 Quiet
13 Mar 5 Quiet
14 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels during 11 March.
Mostly Quiet levels are expected for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to continue above predicted monthly
values for the next few days with the chance of SWFs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Mar 140
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 55% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Mar 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Mar 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Mar 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on 11
March and is current for 11-12 Mar. Observed MUFs were above
predicted monthly values for 11 March and are expected to continue
above predicted monthly values for the next few days. There is
the chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 329 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 41200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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