[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 March 14 issued 2343 UT on 08 Mar 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 9 10:43:12 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Background x-ray flux remains at B levels during 8 March
with only low level C-class flares from region 1991(S24W51) and
new numbered region 2002(S19E64). There are currently 9 numbered
regions on the visible disk, all are small with a simple magnetic
configuration. Solar activity is expected to be Low for the next
24 hours with only a slight chance of an M-class event. A small
Disappearing Solar Filament (DSF) lifted off the SE Quadrant
~~0300UT. SOHO observed 2 CMEs among which a CME first observed
after 0330UT UT, most likely associated with the DSF and a second
CME after 1836UT probably associated to a C2 flare from region
2002 at 1800UT.The relevant period of imagery is not yet available
to see whether they have an earth directed component. Further
analysis will be given in tomorrow's report when imagery should
be available. Solar wind speed was ~400km/s during the day and
Bz component ranged in the neutral +/-4nT. A coronal hole high
speed stream may mildly elevate solar wind speeds 09-10 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 11101101
Cocos Island 1 11001000
Darwin 2 11101101
Townsville 2 11101111
Learmonth 2 21101101
Alice Springs 2 11101101
Norfolk Island 1 10000011
Culgoora 1 01100101
Gingin 1 20100000
Camden 2 11101101
Canberra 1 01100101
Launceston 3 12110111
Hobart 2 11110101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 01110000
Casey 9 24321112
Mawson 8 31112114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Mar 12 Unsettled with isolated Active periods.
10 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Unsettled
conditions, with possible Active periods may be expected over
the next 24 hours,due to a minor coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Mar 145
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were generally above predicted monthly
values. There may be a slight lowering in MUFs values, however
MUFs are expected to remain near predicted or slightly higher
over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 85700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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