[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 09 Mar 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 10 10:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 08/2341UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Moderate.
Three M1 flares from region 2002(S19E64) as well as several C
class flares, mainly from the same region. This region is growing
and may produce further M-class events over the forecast period.
CME activity reported yesterday does not appear earthward directed
and is not expected to be geoeffective. There were a number of
CME events observed in LASCO/STEREO images although none are
considered to be Earth directed. Wind speed remained below 400km/s
with nominal north-south IMF. The forecast disturbance in the
solar wind has not occurred but remains possible for the next
24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Cocos Island 2 22100010
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 2 20100011
Alice Springs 1 10100011
Norfolk Island 1 11000010
Culgoora 1 11100010
Gingin 1 11100001
Camden 1 11100011
Canberra 1 11100000
Launceston 2 11200010
Hobart 1 11200000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 8 34310011
Mawson 5 22110004
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 1011 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Mar 12 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. The
predicted coronal hole solar wind stream has not arrived yet.
An increase in geomagnetic activity remains possible for the
next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Mar 140
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Mar 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were generally above predicted monthly
values. Region 2002 represent a probability of M class flares
and moderate short-wave fadeouts (SWFs). There may be a slight
lowering in MUFs values, however MUFs are expected to remain
near predicted or slightly higher over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 59300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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