[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 07 Mar 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 8 10:30:20 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar: 148/102


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Mar             09 Mar             10 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             140/94             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with only 
one C2 flare at 1857UT from region 1995(S16W76). Background x-ray 
flux remains at B levels during 7 March. There are presently 
9 numbered regions on the disk with most regions are either stable 
or decaying with a simple magnetic configuration. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at Low levels for the next 24 hours while 
the 10cm flux levels are expected to decrease. SOHO LASCO C2 
imagery showed a CME at ~1224 UT, based on STEREO imagery not 
expected to be geo-effective. During the previous 24 hours, the 
solar wind speed decreased from approximately 470 to 400 km/s 
and Bz fluctuated between -2 nT and +4 nT. Although solar conditions 
are quiet at present, solar wind parameters are likely to be 
affected by the onset of a coronal hole high speed during the 
next 12-24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101011
      Cocos Island         1   11011000
      Darwin               2   11101011
      Townsville           2   11111011
      Learmonth            2   21111010
      Alice Springs        1   11101000
      Norfolk Island       1   11000011
      Culgoora             1   11101001
      Gingin               1   10101000
      Camden               2   11101011
      Canberra             1   11100000
      Launceston           4   12211111
      Hobart               1   11101000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000000
      Casey               14   35431011

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1000 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active
09 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Mar     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. The 
expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind stream in 
the next 12-24 hours is expected to cause Unsettled conditions 
with a good chance of isolated Active periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
09 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
10 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Mar   143

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      121
Mar      79
Apr      79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Mar   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Mar   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Mar   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Observed MUFs were generally above predicted monthly 
values. Elevated solar wind speed from a coronal hole may take 
effect late today,08 March. There may be a slight lowering in 
MUFs values, however MUFs are expected to remain near predicted 
or slightly higher over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 462 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   139000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list