[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 04 Mar 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 5 10:30:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Low, with
the largest event being a C8.7 flare at 0455 from region 1991(S24W13)
which has declined in area over the last 24 hours. AR1991 remains
an EKi/ beta-gamma classified spot region, there is likely to
be further flaring from this region over the next 24 hours. AR1990(S12
W27) is declining though may still produce flares. Region 1974
(S12) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return around
5 Mar. Some weak CMEs were observed in available LASCO/STEREO
images but none are considered Earth directed. Solar wind speeds
ranged between 350-420km/s over the UT day and Bz ranged between
+/-5nT with a sustained southward period between 06-08UT. Light
(~ 400km/s) solar wind speeds are expected for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 22012212
Cocos Island 3 22011110
Darwin 6 23112112
Townsville 5 22112212
Learmonth 5 21013212
Alice Springs 5 22112112
Norfolk Island 3 21011112
Culgoora 4 21012212
Gingin 4 21012211
Camden 5 22112212
Canberra 4 12012212
Launceston 7 22022223
Hobart 5 22022212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Mar :
Macquarie Island 5 11033111
Casey 12 24333122
Davis 7 22223221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 2221 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Mar 7 Quiet
06 Mar 7 Quiet
07 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Mostly at Quiet levels during
the UT day, 04 March. Expect Quiet conditions in next 3 days
in the absence of prolonged IMF Bz southwards or CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the
next 3 days. Short-wave fadeouts(SWFs) are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Mar 159
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Mar 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Mar 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Mar 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced HF conditions observed during local day and
night due to increased ionising EUV/X-ray enhanced by numerous
active regions on the disc. Geomagnetic activity expected to
be Quiet for 05-07 March so ionosphere not expected to be too
variable. Numerous active regions on the disc and region 1974
which previously produced M-flare is returning to the east limb,
collectively represent a high probability of M class flares and
moderate short-wave fadeouts (SWFs).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 21200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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