[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 14 issued 2332 UT on 03 Mar 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 4 10:32:33 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 02/2319UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.3 1558UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate during the UT day, 03 March,
due to an M1-class flare from active region 1989 (N08W42) at
1558UT. C-class events were also observed in this region. Active
regions 1986,1991 and 1995 all produced C-class flares during
the UT day. Region 1990(S13W04) still hold a delta class but
has been quiet. This region may produce M-class flares with a
slight chance for X-class flares. no Earth directed CMEs observed
during the period. The greater than 10MeV proton event that started
on 25 February has ended. The Bz component turned southward between
00-12UT , dipping to -6nT ~1000UT. Solar wind presently remains
around 350km/s and the Bz component between +/-4 nT but mainly
northwards, not conducive for geomagnetic merging.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Mostly Quiet.
Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 21221001
Cocos Island 1 11111000
Darwin 3 21121002
Townsville 5 21132011
Learmonth 4 21122002
Alice Springs 3 21221001
Norfolk Island 3 10121012
Culgoora 3 21221001
Gingin 3 21121001
Camden 5 -2232001
Canberra 3 11221001
Launceston 5 21232001
Hobart 4 11232001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Mar :
Macquarie Island 6 11143000
Casey 7 32322111
Davis 9 43322101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 3000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Mar 7 Quiet
05 Mar 5 Quiet
06 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels with isolated
cases of Unsettled levels in the first half of the UT day. The
second half of the UT day was mostly Quiet at all latitudes.
Expect activity to remain at Mostly Quiet in next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1350UT 25/02, Ended at 2345UT 02/03
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were generally above predicted monthly values at
most locations. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for
the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Mar 157
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Mar 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Mar 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Mar 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced HF conditions observed during local day and
night due to increased ionising EUV/X-ray enhanced by numerous
active regions on the disc. This trend is expected to continue
for the next 3 days. Short-wave fadeouts(SWFs) are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 45600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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