[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 02 Mar 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 3 10:30:33 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day, 02 March,
with only C-class flares from 7 active regions all across the
disc. One of the previous major flare producers AR1982 has rotated
off the disc. AR1990/91 still hold M flare potential. Proton
flux associated with the X4.9 flare 25 March from AR1990 has
finally dropped below S1 level. Solar wind was medium-light,
slowly decreasing from 400km/s to ~320km/s. IMF north-south Bz
component fluctuated in the quiescent +/- 5nT range but mainly
northwards, not conducive for geomagnetic merging.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 21110001
Cocos Island 1 21000000
Darwin 3 21110012
Townsville 2 21110011
Learmonth 3 31100001
Alice Springs 1 21000001
Norfolk Island 3 22000012
Culgoora 2 21110001
Gingin 2 30010000
Camden 2 21110001
Canberra 2 21100001
Launceston 3 22110011
Hobart 2 22110001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 21000000
Casey 12 35331001
Davis 8 43321000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2121 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Mar 5 Quiet
04 Mar 5 Quiet
05 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Mostly at Quiet levels during
the UT day, 02 March. Expect Quiet conditions in next 3 days
in the absence of prolonged IMF Bz southwards or a CME from AR1990/91.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 21 02 2014 0015UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Mar 141
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 75
Apr 74
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 28
February and is current for 1-3 Mar. Numerous active regions
on the disc are emitting C-class flares, and strong background
ionising flux. AR1990/91 still hold food M flare potential for
moderate short-wave fadeouts (SWFs). AR1982 has rotated off the
disc so overall M flare potential has dropped slightly. Observed
MUF's for most of Australasia were above monthly median values
during the day and night due to increased ionising EUV/X-ray
enhanced by numerous active regions on the disc and transport
of ionisation from dayside to nightside by thermospheric winds.
Expect this trend to continue for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.1E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 44900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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