[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 March 14 issued 2333 UT on 05 Mar 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 6 10:33:43 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    0210UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 149/104


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Mar             07 Mar             08 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate during the UT day, 05 March, 
due to an M1-class flare from active region 1991(S24W25) at 0210UT. 
low level C-class events were also observed during the UT day. 
AR 1991 has declined though may still produce flares. AR1990(S13 
W39) was inactive and is now only ~190 millionths of the solar 
disc. Background x-ray flux has decreased over the period. The 
overall potential for M flares across all the active regions 
on the disc is high. Several CMEs were observed in available 
LASCO/STEREO images including a partial halo CME first observed 
in LASCO/C2 images ~0924UT, none are considered Earth directed. 
Solar wind speeds has gradually increased between 400-450m/s 
over the UT day and Bz ranged between +/-5nT with no sustained 
southward periods. Light solar wind speeds are expected for the 
the next 2 days. A narrow coronal hole in the northern hemisphere 
should inhance the solar wind speeds staring late on day 3,08 
March.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21212122
      Cocos Island         4   22101121
      Darwin               5   21212112
      Townsville           5   21212122
      Learmonth            7   21213222
      Alice Springs        5   21212112
      Norfolk Island       3   10111121
      Culgoora             4   11212111
      Gingin               5   21212122
      Camden               5   -1212212
      Canberra             4   11212211
      Launceston           7   22222222
      Hobart               6   31222211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     5   10123211
      Casey               19   45433222
      Davis               12   3332323-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              6   2202 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Mar     7    Quiet
07 Mar     7    Quiet
08 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Mostly at Quiet levels during 
the UT day, 05 March with isolated cases of Unsettled and Active 
levels in the polar regions.6-7 March should be mostly Quiet 
in the absence of prolonged IMF Bz southwards or fast CME activity. 
Elevated solar wind speed from a coronal hole could take effect 
late on 8 March to create Unsettled to Active conditions.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the 
next 24 hours. Short-wave fadeouts(SWFs) are possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Mar   145

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      121
Mar      79
Apr      79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Mar   150    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Mar   150    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Mar   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: There was a slight lowering in MUFs values today, 05 
March, however MUFs are expected to remain near predicted or 
slightly higher for 6-7 March. Elevated solar wind speed from 
a coronal hole may take effect late on 8 Mar and create moderately 
variable MUFs. Numerous active regions appear to hold further 
potential for M class flares and short-wave fadeouts(SWFs should 
be expected over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 368 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    94800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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