[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 June 14 issued 2339 UT on 28 Jun 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 29 09:39:54 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jun             30 Jun             01 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity for June 28 was low. Multiple C-class 
flares were observed over the period. Further C-class activity 
is expected over the next few days, with a slight chance for 
an M-class flare. Several CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO 
imagery, they are not expected to have geoeffective consequences. 
ACE data show the solar wind continued at nominal levels over 
28 June UT day, solar wind speed range 300-350 km/s with slightly 
disturbed conditions in north south IMF range +/-5nT negative 
up to -8nT ~1200UT. Minor coronal hole effects possible in the 
next 24 hours increasing solar wind speeds to Moderate levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Mostly Quiet.

Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11012100
      Cocos Island         2   11012200
      Darwin               3   11112101
      Townsville           3   11112111
      Learmonth            3   11112200
      Alice Springs        2   10112101
      Norfolk Island       2   11012100
      Culgoora             2   12012100
      Gingin               3   11112210
      Camden               3   12022101
      Canberra             3   01023100
      Launceston           4   11023200
      Hobart               3   01023100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     3   00023200
      Casey                4   12212210
      Mawson              10   42123321
      Davis                -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1001 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions were observed over the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours, with a brief Unsettled period 
at high latitudes ~1300UT, most likely due to enhanced merging 
with the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) as it's north-south 
(Bz) component stayed southward (-8nT) for several hours. Unsettled 
conditions may accompany the influence of a coronal hole high 
speed stream today,29 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jun      Fair-normal    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
30 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
01 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jun    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
    Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jun    60    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
30 Jun    60    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
01 Jul    70    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Slight improvement in HF conditions observed on 28 June 
due to increased ionising EUV/X-ray enhanced by increased active 
regions on the disc. The F10.7 cm solar radio flux and ionospheric 
T indices have been trending upwards, outlook is for a strengthening 
ionosphere. Possible disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic 
regions 29-30 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 331 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    34400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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