[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 June 14 issued 2339 UT on 28 Jun 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 29 09:39:54 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity for June 28 was low. Multiple C-class
flares were observed over the period. Further C-class activity
is expected over the next few days, with a slight chance for
an M-class flare. Several CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO
imagery, they are not expected to have geoeffective consequences.
ACE data show the solar wind continued at nominal levels over
28 June UT day, solar wind speed range 300-350 km/s with slightly
disturbed conditions in north south IMF range +/-5nT negative
up to -8nT ~1200UT. Minor coronal hole effects possible in the
next 24 hours increasing solar wind speeds to Moderate levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Mostly Quiet.
Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11012100
Cocos Island 2 11012200
Darwin 3 11112101
Townsville 3 11112111
Learmonth 3 11112200
Alice Springs 2 10112101
Norfolk Island 2 11012100
Culgoora 2 12012100
Gingin 3 11112210
Camden 3 12022101
Canberra 3 01023100
Launceston 4 11023200
Hobart 3 01023100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 00023200
Casey 4 12212210
Mawson 10 42123321
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1001 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions were observed over the Australian
region over the last 24 hours, with a brief Unsettled period
at high latitudes ~1300UT, most likely due to enhanced merging
with the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) as it's north-south
(Bz) component stayed southward (-8nT) for several hours. Unsettled
conditions may accompany the influence of a coronal hole high
speed stream today,29 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Fair-normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jun 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jun 60 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
30 Jun 60 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
01 Jul 70 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slight improvement in HF conditions observed on 28 June
due to increased ionising EUV/X-ray enhanced by increased active
regions on the disc. The F10.7 cm solar radio flux and ionospheric
T indices have been trending upwards, outlook is for a strengthening
ionosphere. Possible disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic
regions 29-30 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 331 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 34400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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