[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 27 Jun 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 28 09:30:19 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jun             29 Jun             30 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             120/72             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with a 
single long duration C1 class X-ray flare peaking at 0114UT, 
most likely from an active region behind the east limb from which 
a backside CME was observed to erupt shortly thereafter. No other 
geoeffective CMEs were observed during 27 June in the available 
SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery. All numbered regions on the 
solar disk remain fairly stable. Expect solar activity to be 
mostly Low over the next three days. ACE data show the solar 
wind at nominal levels over 27 June UT day. Elevated solar wind 
speed from a coronal hole may take effect late today,28 June.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   10000010
      Cocos Island         0   10000010
      Darwin               1   10000011
      Townsville           1   11100011
      Learmonth            1   10100010
      Alice Springs        1   10000011
      Norfolk Island       0   01000000
      Culgoora             1   10000011
      Gingin               0   00000020
      Camden               0   00000011
      Canberra             0   00000010
      Launceston           1   10001010
      Hobart               0   00000010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                1   00100020
      Mawson               2   10001122
      Davis                -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jun : 
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   1002 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jun    12    Quiet to Unsettled conditions with a chance of 
                isolated Active periods.
29 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jun     7    Mostly Quiet.

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours at 
all latitudes. The expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed 
wind stream in the next 12-24 hours is expected to cause Unsettled 
conditions with a chance of isolated Active periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
29 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
30 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Jun    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jun    40    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
29 Jun    40    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
30 Jun    60    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 25 June 
and is current for 26-28 Jun. Variable depressions observed in 
the Australian region due to declining EUV levels related to 
a low number of active regions on the Sun. There should be Unsettled 
geomagnetic activity due to high solar wind speed from a coronal 
hole, with possible peak Active (depending on Interplanetary 
Magnetic field north-south orientation) from late on 28 June, 
probably causing MUF depressions up to 40% for 28-29 June. Slight 
improvement in HF conditions possible on 30 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 350 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    52900 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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