[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 26 Jun 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 27 09:30:16 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jun             28 Jun             29 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low with a single C2 class X-ray 
flare. Currently 5 numbered regions on the solar disk, they all 
appear relatively stable. Expect solar activity to be mostly 
Low over the next three days. No geoeffective CMEs were observed 
during 26 June in the available SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery. 
Solar wind speed remains steady at around 350 km/s. Light solar 
wind speeds are expected for day 1,27 June. Day 2, 28 June, there 
is likely to be a modest increase in the solar wind speed as 
a coronal hole moves into geoeffective position.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11112000
      Cocos Island         1   11101000
      Darwin               1   10111001
      Townsville           2   11112001
      Learmonth            1   11011000
      Alice Springs        1   10111000
      Norfolk Island       1   00111000
      Culgoora             2   01112000
      Gingin               0   00011000
      Camden               2   11112000
      Canberra             1   00012000
      Launceston           2   11012010
      Hobart               1   00012000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     2   00013100
      Casey                2   01211000
      Mawson               3   11112110
      Davis                -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun : 
      Darwin              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              5   1121 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jun     7    Quiet
28 Jun    12    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet at all latitudes. Solar 
wind parameters remain at nominal levels. Expect Quiet conditions 
day one. Possible minor disturbances day two due to a coronal 
hole wind stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal-fair
28 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal-fair
29 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jun    44

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.     
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jun    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
28 Jun    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
29 Jun    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 25 June 
and is current for 26-28 Jun. Variable depressions observed in 
the Australian region due to declining EUV levels related to 
a low number of active regions on the Sun. MUFs are expected 
to remain lower than predicted over the next 3 days due to this 
decrease in EUV. Minor disturbances possible Antarctic region 
day two.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 321 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    33100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list