[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jun 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 26 09:30:15 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Minor flaring occurred from active region 2096(N10E36).
All regions are mostly stable. Expect solar activity to be Very
Low to Low over the next three days. SDO images show a filament
eruption which began ~0700UT in the northeast quadrant while
available SOHO and STEREO images show a CME ~0912UT which is
likely associated with the filament event. This CME is not likely
to be geoeffective. ACE data show the solar wind speed 300-350
km/s with slightly disturbed conditions in north south IMF range
+/-5nT mostly south. Expect the solar wind to remain light over
the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 01211222
Cocos Island 3 01111212
Darwin 4 01111222
Townsville 4 11111222
Learmonth 4 01211222
Alice Springs 4 01111222
Norfolk Island 2 01110111
Culgoora 4 10211212
Gingin 3 00110222
Camden 3 01211211
Canberra 2 00210211
Launceston 4 11210221
Hobart 3 01210211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 00210000
Casey 5 12211221
Mawson 13 33331224
Davis 8 133310--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jun :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3321 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jun 5 Quiet
27 Jun 5 Quiet
28 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 25 June and
are expected to remain mostly Quiet during 26 June. No fast solar
wind or CME is currently expected to arrive within the next 24
hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
27 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
28 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Lower than expected solar flux is likely to reduce MUFs
below those based on the monthly T index.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jun 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jun 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
27 Jun 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
28 Jun 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable depressions to 45% observed in the Australian
region due to declining EUV levels related to a low number of
active regions on the Sun. Night spread F observed, Sporadic
E layers have also been present. MUFs are expected to remain
lower than predicted over the next 3 days due to this decrease
in EUV.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.8E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 37200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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