[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jun 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 26 09:30:15 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jun             27 Jun             28 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: Minor flaring occurred from active region 2096(N10E36). 
All regions are mostly stable. Expect solar activity to be Very 
Low to Low over the next three days. SDO images show a filament 
eruption which began ~0700UT in the northeast quadrant while 
available SOHO and STEREO images show a CME ~0912UT which is 
likely associated with the filament event. This CME is not likely 
to be geoeffective. ACE data show the solar wind speed 300-350 
km/s with slightly disturbed conditions in north south IMF range 
+/-5nT mostly south. Expect the solar wind to remain light over 
the next 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   01211222
      Cocos Island         3   01111212
      Darwin               4   01111222
      Townsville           4   11111222
      Learmonth            4   01211222
      Alice Springs        4   01111222
      Norfolk Island       2   01110111
      Culgoora             4   10211212
      Gingin               3   00110222
      Camden               3   01211211
      Canberra             2   00210211
      Launceston           4   11210221
      Hobart               3   01210211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     1   00210000
      Casey                5   12211221
      Mawson              13   33331224
      Davis                8   133310--

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jun : 
      Darwin              12   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3321 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jun     5    Quiet
27 Jun     5    Quiet
28 Jun     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 25 June and 
are expected to remain mostly Quiet during 26 June. No fast solar 
wind or CME is currently expected to arrive within the next 24 
hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal-fair
27 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal-fair
28 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Lower than expected solar flux is likely to reduce MUFs 
below those based on the monthly T index.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Jun    46

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.     
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jun    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
27 Jun    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
28 Jun    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable depressions to 45% observed in the Australian 
region due to declining EUV levels related to a low number of 
active regions on the Sun. Night spread F observed, Sporadic 
E layers have also been present. MUFs are expected to remain 
lower than predicted over the next 3 days due to this decrease 
in EUV.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.8E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 330 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    37200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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