[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jun 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 25 09:30:19 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jun             26 Jun             27 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41             100/48

COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low with a single C2 class X-ray 
flare. Solar wind conditions have returned to ambient following 
the minor CME impact on the 23rd of June UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21100010
      Cocos Island         2   21110010
      Darwin               2   22100011
      Townsville           3   22200010
      Learmonth            2   21110010
      Alice Springs        2   12100010
      Norfolk Island       2   22100000
      Culgoora             2   21100010
      Gingin               2   21100010
      Camden               2   21100010
      Canberra             1   21100000
      Launceston           2   22110010
      Hobart               1   21100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     1   10110000
      Casey                3   32110000
      Mawson              14   54221113
      Davis               11   53321000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jun : 
      Darwin              11   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   1000 1124     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jun     5    Quiet
26 Jun     5    Quiet
27 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. No disturbances are expected 
in the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal-fair
26 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal-fair
27 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Lower than expected solar flux is likely to reduce MUFs 
below those based on the monthly T index.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jun    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jun    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
26 Jun    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
27 Jun    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 22 June 
and is current for 23-25 Jun. Depressions up to 40% observed 
in the Australian region due to declining EUV levels resulting 
from a decrease in active regions on the Sun. IPS HF radio communications 
warning 14/31 remains in effect.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.5E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 351 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    18900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list