[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jun 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 25 09:30:19 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jun             26 Jun             27 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41             100/48

COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low with a single C2 class X-ray 
flare. Solar wind conditions have returned to ambient following 
the minor CME impact on the 23rd of June UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21100010
      Cocos Island         2   21110010
      Darwin               2   22100011
      Townsville           3   22200010
      Learmonth            2   21110010
      Alice Springs        2   12100010
      Norfolk Island       2   22100000
      Culgoora             2   21100010
      Gingin               2   21100010
      Camden               2   21100010
      Canberra             1   21100000
      Launceston           2   22110010
      Hobart               1   21100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     1   10110000
      Casey                3   32110000
      Mawson              14   54221113
      Davis               11   53321000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jun : 
      Darwin              11   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   1000 1124     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jun     5    Quiet
26 Jun     5    Quiet
27 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. No disturbances are expected 
in the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal-fair
26 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal-fair
27 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Lower than expected solar flux is likely to reduce MUFs 
below those based on the monthly T index.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jun    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jun    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
26 Jun    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
27 Jun    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 22 June 
and is current for 23-25 Jun. Depressions up to 40% observed 
in the Australian region due to declining EUV levels resulting 
from a decrease in active regions on the Sun. IPS HF radio communications 
warning 14/31 remains in effect.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.5E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 351 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    18900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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