[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 June 14 issued 2345 UT on 23 Jun 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 24 09:45:15 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jun             25 Jun             26 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with only one minor 
C-class flare observed at 1444UT from Region 2093 (S09W32). All 
regions appear relatively stable. Solar activity is expected 
to be Low for the next 3 days with a slight chance of an isolated 
low M-class flare. No geoeffective CMEs were observed during 
23 June in the available SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery. ACE 
data show nominal conditions until ~2200 UT when a weak shock 
arrived. The solar wind speed jumped to ~400 km/s and IMF Bz 
component turned southwards. Density indicates the arrival of 
anticipated CME. The solar wind speed is expected to remain slightly 
elevated next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   01000001
      Cocos Island         0   00000000
      Darwin               0   10100000
      Townsville           1   11000001
      Learmonth            0   11000000
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Norfolk Island       1   01000002
      Culgoora             1   01000002
      Gingin               0   00000000
      Camden               1   11000002
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           2   01000003
      Hobart               0   00000002    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                0   10100000
      Mawson               3   21111012

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              3   1100 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active
25 Jun    12    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jun     7    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet in the Australian region 
during the UT day, 23 June. Expect an increase to Unsettled levels 
in geomagnetic activity with isolated cases of Active levels 
today 24 June due to CME effects. Tomorrow, 25 June, expect Quiet 
to Unsettled levels of activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
25 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
26 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Lower than expected solar flux is likely to reduce MUFs 
below those based on the monthly T index.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jun    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available. 
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
    Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jun    45    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
25 Jun    55    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
26 Jun    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 22 June 
and is current for 23-25 Jun. Depressions up to 45% observed 
in the Australian region due to declining EUV levels resulting 
from a decrease in active regions on the Sun. There was strong 
Spread-F in Darwin ionograms last night. Expect similar conditions 
next 24 hours with ionospheric support weakening due to low solar 
10.7cm irradiance and possible increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.9E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 380 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    41700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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