[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jun 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 23 09:30:19 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jun             24 Jun             25 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41             100/48

COMMENT: All regions mostly stable with 12093 (S09 W20) showing 
some slight growth and new region 12096 (N10 E72) numbered. A 
CME was observed on the east limb at 0209 UT and may be associated 
with region 12096. This CME is not expected to be geoeffective. 
ACE data show the 19 June CME is yet to arrive with nominal conditions 
throughout the reporting period.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01000011
      Cocos Island         1   0-100011
      Darwin               1   01100011
      Townsville           1   11100011
      Learmonth            1   01100011
      Alice Springs        0   01000010
      Norfolk Island       0   00000010
      Culgoora             1   01000011
      Gingin               2   10100021
      Camden               1   01000011
      Canberra             0   01000010
      Launceston           1   01000021
      Hobart               0   01000010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                3   12100121
      Mawson              16   12211146

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jun : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   2232 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jun    27    Quiet then unsettled to active with isolated 
                minor storm periods.
24 Jun    12    Unsettled with chance of isolated active periods 
                in first half.
25 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 20 June and 
is current for 22-23 Jun. 19 June CME yet to arrive, expected 
23 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
24 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
25 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal

COMMENT: Lower than expected solar flux is likely to reduce MUFs 
below those based on the monthly T index.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Jun    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced 25-40% 07-10 UT. Depressed 20-45%
      00, 11-19 UT. No data 20-23 UT. Near predicted
      monthly values at other times. Spread F 17-19 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed 20-40% 02-04, 06-15, 21-22 UT. Near
      predicted monthly values at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly depressed 15-40% at Darwin. Near predicted
      monthly values, depressed 20-30% 06, 10-13, 21, 23
      UT at Townsville. Spread F 12-20 UT at both stations.
      Sporadic E at Townsville 05-10 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
      Depressions 20-30% at times mostly 08-12 UT. Night
      spread F observed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jun    60    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
24 Jun    60    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
25 Jun    55    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 22 June 
and is current for 23-25 Jun. Lower than expected solar flux 
is likely to reduce MUFs below those based on the monthly T index. 
Night communications may be degraded.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.6E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 441 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   104000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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