[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jun 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 22 09:30:17 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jun             23 Jun             24 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Region 12093 (S10 W07) produced two C flares. This region 
showed some decay, an unnumbered region to its southwest grew 
while other regions were mostly stable. SOHO and STEREO images 
show a CME at ~0654 UT while SDO and GONG images show the CME 
was associated with a filament disappearance which began ~0340 
UT in the northern hemisphere. While well positioned, the material 
was ejected north of the ecliptic and is not expected to be geoeffective. 
ACE data show the solar wind speed range 400-490 km/s with slightly 
disturbed conditions in other parameters until ~08 UT (northsouth 
IMF range +/-7 nT). Since then, the solar wind has been at nominal 
levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11220000
      Cocos Island         1   01110000
      Darwin               2   21210000
      Townsville           4   12320001
      Learmonth            2   11210000
      Alice Springs        2   11210000
      Norfolk Island       2   11220000
      Culgoora             3   12220001
      Gingin               2   02210000
      Camden               2   11220001
      Canberra             2   11220000
      Launceston           4   12320001
      Hobart               2   01220001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     4   00420000
      Casey                4   13310000
      Mawson               9   33322112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              9   2123 2313     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jun    16    Quiet to unsettled. Active to minor storm periods 
                late if CME impacts.
23 Jun    22    Unsettled to Active. Isolated minor storm periods.
24 Jun    12    Unsettled with possible active periods.

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 20 June and 
is current for 22-23 Jun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor
24 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal

COMMENT: Lower than expected solar flux is likely to reduce MUFs 
below those based on the monthly T index.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jun    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced 25-50% 08-12 UT. Depressed 20-40%
      03, 05, 13-18, 21-23 UT. Near predicted monthly
      values at other times.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed 25-45% 04-05, 07-12, 16 UT. Near
      predicted monthly values to 20% depressed at
      other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
      Depressed 25-45% at Darwin 11-18, 21 UT. Depressed
      20-30% at Townsville 02, 07-17 UT. Night spread F
      at times 14-21 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
      Depressed 20-30% 00-02, 07-10 UT. Night spread F 09-20
      UT at some eastern stations.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed 00-13 UT.
      Depressions 20-35% and weaker ionosphere after 13 UT.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
23 Jun    75    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
24 Jun    65    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.

COMMENT: Lower than expected solar flux is likely to reduce MUFs 
below those based on the monthly T index. Night communications 
may be degraded.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.8E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 428 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    60900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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