[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jun 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 21 09:30:17 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jun             22 Jun             23 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48

COMMENT: Region 12093 (S09 E06) produced the only C flares. This 
region has displayed some growth while other regions are stable. 
SDO/GONG images show a filament eruption ~0823 UT in the northeast 
quadrant while STEREO images show a CME ~1024 UT on the northeast 
limb which is likely associated with the filament event. This 
CME is not likely to be geoeffective. ACE data show the solar 
wind at nominal levels, speed range 400-460 km/s. The wind has 
become slightly disturbed with the northsouth IMF range +/-7 
nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 20 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11332201
      Cocos Island         4   11-22201
      Darwin               6   11222311
      Townsville           9   21332312
      Learmonth            7   12322301
      Alice Springs        5   11222301
      Norfolk Island       5   11321211
      Culgoora             6   11332201
      Gingin               5   12222201
      Camden               6   11332201
      Canberra             6   11331201
      Launceston           9   22332321
      Hobart               7   12332201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    10   11442300
      Casey               17   22332621
      Mawson              14   43433221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              9   3331 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jun    12    Quiet to Unsettled. Possible active to minor 
                storm periods late if CME impacts.
23 Jun    22    Unsettled to Active. Isolated minor storm periods.

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 20 June and 
is current for 22-23 Jun. A CME is expected to increase activity 
late 22 June or 23 June.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
22 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair

COMMENT: Lower than expected solar flux is likely to reduce MUFs 
below those based on the monthly T index.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Jun    63

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions
      20-35% 01, 13-19, 21-22 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed 20-30% 00-01, 06-09, 11-12, 16,
      22-23 UT. Depressed 50% 15 UT. Otherwise near
      predicted monthly values. Spread F 10-13, 15 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressed 20-30% 
      00-01, 11, 15-18 21 UT, depressed 30-35% 12-14 UT
      at Darwin. Depressed 20-30% 11-13, 22 UT at Townsville.
      Some spread F 13-20 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Some depressions to 25%
      during night, particularly at Hobart. Spread F observed
      at all eastern stations during night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
22 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
23 Jun    80    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed

COMMENT: Lower than expected solar flux is likely to reduce MUFs 
below those based on the monthly T index. Night communications 
may be degraded.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.4E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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