[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jun 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 21 09:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Region 12093 (S09 E06) produced the only C flares. This
region has displayed some growth while other regions are stable.
SDO/GONG images show a filament eruption ~0823 UT in the northeast
quadrant while STEREO images show a CME ~1024 UT on the northeast
limb which is likely associated with the filament event. This
CME is not likely to be geoeffective. ACE data show the solar
wind at nominal levels, speed range 400-460 km/s. The wind has
become slightly disturbed with the northsouth IMF range +/-7
nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 11332201
Cocos Island 4 11-22201
Darwin 6 11222311
Townsville 9 21332312
Learmonth 7 12322301
Alice Springs 5 11222301
Norfolk Island 5 11321211
Culgoora 6 11332201
Gingin 5 12222201
Camden 6 11332201
Canberra 6 11331201
Launceston 9 22332321
Hobart 7 12332201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jun :
Macquarie Island 10 11442300
Casey 17 22332621
Mawson 14 43433221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 3331 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jun 12 Quiet to Unsettled. Possible active to minor
storm periods late if CME impacts.
23 Jun 22 Unsettled to Active. Isolated minor storm periods.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 20 June and
is current for 22-23 Jun. A CME is expected to increase activity
late 22 June or 23 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
22 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
23 Jun Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: Lower than expected solar flux is likely to reduce MUFs
below those based on the monthly T index.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jun 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions
20-35% 01, 13-19, 21-22 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed 20-30% 00-01, 06-09, 11-12, 16,
22-23 UT. Depressed 50% 15 UT. Otherwise near
predicted monthly values. Spread F 10-13, 15 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressed 20-30%
00-01, 11, 15-18 21 UT, depressed 30-35% 12-14 UT
at Darwin. Depressed 20-30% 11-13, 22 UT at Townsville.
Some spread F 13-20 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Some depressions to 25%
during night, particularly at Hobart. Spread F observed
at all eastern stations during night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
22 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
23 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: Lower than expected solar flux is likely to reduce MUFs
below those based on the monthly T index. Night communications
may be degraded.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.4E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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