[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 June 14 issued 2338 UT on 29 Jun 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 30 09:38:46 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 126/79


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jun             01 Jul             02 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with numerous C-class flares 
from a number of active regions, the greatest being a C4 flare 
from region 2104 (S10E64) at 1152UT. All regions mostly stable 
with 2097(N13W03) showing some slight growth and new regions 
2102(N11E65), 2103(S10E52) and 2105(S07E31) numbered. Further 
C-class activity is expected over the next few days, with a slight 
chance for an M-class flare. A CME was observed at ~1200 UT most 
likely associated with the C4 event. It is not expected to be 
geoeffective. Solar wind speed stayed ~350 km/s and the IMF Bz 
mostly stayed near zero but went negative up to -10 nT since 
2200UT and is continuing south at 2300UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21100012
      Cocos Island         2   11110012
      Darwin               3   12100022
      Townsville           3   21100022
      Learmonth            3   22100012
      Alice Springs        2   21100012
      Norfolk Island       2   21000011
      Culgoora             2   21000011
      Gingin               3   22100022
      Camden               2   21100011
      Canberra             2   21000011
      Launceston           3   21012011
      Hobart               2   21000011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     1   10012000
      Casey                3   23110010
      Mawson              11   53111212
      Davis                -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun : 
      Darwin              19   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2111 2321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jul     5    Quiet
02 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the Australian region 
over the last 24 hours. Unsettled periods my be observed next 
24 hours as the Bz component of the IMF turned southward at approximately 
2200UT and is continuing south at 2300UT. Mostly Quiet conditions 
for the following two days in the absence of prolonged IMF Bz 
southwards or CMEs.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: The 10.7 cm solar flux is trending upward and the multiday 
outlook is for a strengthening of ionospheric support.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Jun    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jun    70    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
01 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: The F10.7 cm solar radio flux and ionospheric T index 
are trending upwards. Expect similar conditions next few days 
with ionospheric support strengthening due to increased solar 
10.7cm irradiance. There is the slight chance for short-wave 
fadeouts over the forecast period.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 324 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    46400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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