[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jun 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 19 09:30:24 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Regions 12087 (S18 W31), 12089 (N17 W68) and 12093 (S19
E37) produced low C flares. All regions appear stable. There
remains a chance of moderate activity. A minor CME was observed
off the southwest limb but is not expected to be geoeffective.
ACE data show the solar wind speed 390-500 km/s and the northsouth
IMF range +5 to -7 nT until ~17 UT when fluctuations increased
to +/-10 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 21221231
Cocos Island 7 2-------
Darwin 5 21221221
Townsville 8 22222331
Learmonth 6 21221231
Alice Springs 6 21221230
Norfolk Island 8 21221233
Culgoora 8 2122133-
Gingin 5 22211221
Camden 8 2122233-
Canberra 6 21221231
Launceston 11 3122234-
Hobart 8 2122233-
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jun :
Macquarie Island 12 21232350
Casey 8 23222231
Mawson 31 63433361
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 3222 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled. Chance of isolated active
periods mostly at higher latitudes.
20 Jun 6 Quiet
21 Jun 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Lower than expected solar flux is likely to reduce MUFs
below those based on the monthly T index, particularly on circuits
including the southern hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jun 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Depressed 35-45% 13-18, 22-23 UT. Spread F 15-21
UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Depressed 15-25% 01-02, 08-09, 13-14, 21-22 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Depressed 20-40% at Darwin 13-16, 21 UT. Night
spread F observed at both stations.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressed
20-25% at Hobart 19-23 UT. Spread F observed at
Hobart during night hours.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
Sporadic E 07-18 UT at Macquarie Island.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
20 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
21 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 17 June
and is current for 17-19 Jun. Lower than expected solar flux
is likely to reduce MUFs below those based on the monthly T index,
particularly on circuits including the southern hemisphere. Night
communications may be degraded due to spreading and tilting in
the ionosphere.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 38800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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