[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jun 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 19 09:30:24 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jun             20 Jun             21 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Regions 12087 (S18 W31), 12089 (N17 W68) and 12093 (S19 
E37) produced low C flares. All regions appear stable. There 
remains a chance of moderate activity. A minor CME was observed 
off the southwest limb but is not expected to be geoeffective. 
ACE data show the solar wind speed 390-500 km/s and the northsouth 
IMF range +5 to -7 nT until ~17 UT when fluctuations increased 
to +/-10 nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   21221231
      Cocos Island         7   2-------
      Darwin               5   21221221
      Townsville           8   22222331
      Learmonth            6   21221231
      Alice Springs        6   21221230
      Norfolk Island       8   21221233
      Culgoora             8   2122133-
      Gingin               5   22211221
      Camden               8   2122233-
      Canberra             6   21221231
      Launceston          11   3122234-
      Hobart               8   2122233-    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    12   21232350
      Casey                8   23222231
      Mawson              31   63433361

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   3222 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled. Chance of isolated active 
                periods mostly at higher latitudes.
20 Jun     6    Quiet
21 Jun     5    Quiet


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Lower than expected solar flux is likely to reduce MUFs 
below those based on the monthly T index, particularly on circuits 
including the southern hemisphere.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jun    78

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
      Depressed 35-45% 13-18, 22-23 UT. Spread F 15-21
      UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
      Depressed 15-25% 01-02, 08-09, 13-14, 21-22 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
      Depressed 20-40% at Darwin 13-16, 21 UT. Night
      spread F observed at both stations.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressed
      20-25% at Hobart 19-23 UT. Spread F observed at
      Hobart during night hours.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
      Sporadic E 07-18 UT at Macquarie Island.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
20 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
21 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 17 June 
and is current for 17-19 Jun. Lower than expected solar flux 
is likely to reduce MUFs below those based on the monthly T index, 
particularly on circuits including the southern hemisphere. Night 
communications may be degraded due to spreading and tilting in 
the ionosphere.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 365 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:    38800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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