[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 June 14 issued 2333 UT on 19 Jun 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 20 09:33:15 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jun             21 Jun             22 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Regions 12093 (S10 E19) and 12095 (N06 W83) were the 
only regions to produce C flares. Region 12093 showed growth, 
12087 (S19 W49) decayed, while other regions appear stable. SDO/GONG 
images show a filament eruption beginning ~1539 UT and adjacent 
to 12093 which flared at 1924 UT. A CME was associated with this 
activity and is expected to impact Earth late 22 to 23 June. 
ACE data show the solar wind settling with wind speed decreasing 
to 410 km/s. The northsouth IMF fluctuations decreased from +9 
to -7 nT, to nominal levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 19 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   23221121
      Cocos Island         5   22221021
      Darwin               6   23221121
      Townsville           6   23221121
      Learmonth            8   23221132
      Alice Springs        6   23221121
      Norfolk Island       5   23220011
      Culgoora             6   23221111
      Gingin               7   22211232
      Camden               6   23221121
      Canberra             5   22221111
      Launceston           7   23222121
      Hobart               5   22221111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     6   21322111
      Casey               12   34331222
      Mawson              36   45432266

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            5   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15   3232 2344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jun     6    Quiet
21 Jun     5    Quiet
22 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Activity is expected to increase late 22 to 23 June 
due to a CME impact. Active conditions possible late 22 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Lower than expected solar flux is likely to reduce MUFs 
below those based on the monthly T index, particularly on circuits 
including the southern hemisphere.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jun    76

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressed
      20-25% 00-01, 21-23 UT, depressed 20-40%
      12-18 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly 15-30% depressed.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressed at
      Darwin 20-45% 00, 10-16 UT with night spread
      F. Depressed at Townsville 20-30% 00, 10-14 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
      Spread F at Hobart 08-23 UT. Occasional night
      spread F at Brisbane and Norfolk Is.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly 10-30% depressed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
21 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
22 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed

COMMENT: Lower than expected solar flux is likely to reduce MUFs 
below those based on the monthly T index, particularly on circuits 
including the southern hemisphere. Night communications may be 
degraded.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 422 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:   129000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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