[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jun 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 18 09:30:17 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jun             19 Jun             20 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             105/54

COMMENT: A few C-class flares from AR 12087 (S19 W19), 12089 
(N18 W60) and 12093 (S10 E54). All regions are mostly stable. 
A CME directed southwest was observed at ~0924 UT and appears 
associated with an event on the far side seen in STEREO A images. 
ACE data show the solar wind speed range 350-490 km/s with the 
northsouth IMF (Bz) +8 to -7 nT and mostly southward. The solar 
wind has become more disturbed since ~17 UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11311112
      Cocos Island         4   12211112
      Darwin               5   12311112
      Townsville           6   12311212
      Learmonth            6   22311112
      Alice Springs        3   01211112
      Norfolk Island       3   11211111
      Culgoora             5   11311112
      Gingin               4   12211112
      Camden               5   11311112
      Canberra             3   11211102
      Launceston           5   11311112
      Hobart               5   11311112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     3   00311001
      Casey                6   22221122
      Mawson              21   43332126

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun : 
      Darwin              12   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   1110 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jun    12    Quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated 
                active periods
19 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jun     5    Quiet


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Chance of sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) over 
forecast period. Lower than expected solar flux is likely to 
reduce MUFs below those based on the monthly T index, particularly 
on circuits with southern hemisphere bases.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jun    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
      00-13, 22 UT. Depressed 20-40% at other times.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
      Depressed by 25-30% 02, 07-13, 22 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressed 35% at
      Darwin 20-21 UT. Depressed 15-20% at Townsville
      00-02, 05-08, 12-14, 21-23 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 20%. Night spread F at Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
19 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
20 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 17 June 
and is current for 17-19 Jun. Chance of sudden ionospheric disturbances 
(SWFs) over the forecast period. Lower than expected solar flux 
is likely to reduce MUFs below those based on the monthly T index, 
particularly on circuits with southern hemisphere bases.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 358 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    46800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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