[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jun 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 18 09:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: A few C-class flares from AR 12087 (S19 W19), 12089
(N18 W60) and 12093 (S10 E54). All regions are mostly stable.
A CME directed southwest was observed at ~0924 UT and appears
associated with an event on the far side seen in STEREO A images.
ACE data show the solar wind speed range 350-490 km/s with the
northsouth IMF (Bz) +8 to -7 nT and mostly southward. The solar
wind has become more disturbed since ~17 UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 11311112
Cocos Island 4 12211112
Darwin 5 12311112
Townsville 6 12311212
Learmonth 6 22311112
Alice Springs 3 01211112
Norfolk Island 3 11211111
Culgoora 5 11311112
Gingin 4 12211112
Camden 5 11311112
Canberra 3 11211102
Launceston 5 11311112
Hobart 5 11311112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 00311001
Casey 6 22221122
Mawson 21 43332126
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1110 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jun 12 Quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated
active periods
19 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jun 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Chance of sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) over
forecast period. Lower than expected solar flux is likely to
reduce MUFs below those based on the monthly T index, particularly
on circuits with southern hemisphere bases.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jun 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
00-13, 22 UT. Depressed 20-40% at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Depressed by 25-30% 02, 07-13, 22 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressed 35% at
Darwin 20-21 UT. Depressed 15-20% at Townsville
00-02, 05-08, 12-14, 21-23 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 20%. Night spread F at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
19 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
20 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 17 June
and is current for 17-19 Jun. Chance of sudden ionospheric disturbances
(SWFs) over the forecast period. Lower than expected solar flux
is likely to reduce MUFs below those based on the monthly T index,
particularly on circuits with southern hemisphere bases.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 46800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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