[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jun 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 17 09:30:16 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    0002UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jun             18 Jun             19 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: A number of C-class flares from AR 12085 (S15 W87), 
12087 (S19 W06) and 12089 (N18 W51). A CME was associated with 
the M1 flare from AR 12087 but with most of the material directed 
southwest, it is unlikely to be geoeffective. ACE data show the 
solar wind was at nominal levels. There is a small coronal hole 
located about 20 degrees west.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01101110
      Cocos Island         2   01211010
      Darwin               2   01101111
      Townsville           3   11201111
      Learmonth            2   10211101
      Alice Springs        1   01101100
      Norfolk Island       1   01101010
      Culgoora             2   01101111
      Gingin               2   11102100
      Camden               2   01101111
      Canberra             1   00101110
      Launceston           2   11101120
      Hobart               1   00101110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     1   00001110
      Casey                3   12201101
      Mawson               7   32221221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              6   2012 1312     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jun     7    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: A small coronal hole may increase activity to unsettled 
to active levels in two to three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Chance of sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) over 
forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jun    69

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with 20-30%
      depressions 03-04, 08-11 and 22-23 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions
      of 15-35% at Darwin 07-17 and 21 UT and
      15-25% depressed at Townsville 06, 09-13 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
      Some deeper depressions to 25% mostly before
      15 UT. Enhanced 20-30% at Perth 17-22 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 30%.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
18 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
19 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.

COMMENT: Night spread F observed at most northern and eastern 
observatories. Chance of sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) 
over the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    47900 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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