[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jun 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 16 09:30:46 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1139UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours,
with an M1 X-ray flare from region 2085 (S19) on the west limb
at 15/1139UT. A nearby CME observed soon after is directed too
far south to be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to be
low to moderate on 16-Jun, and low on 17-18 Jun, as the most
active regions rotate off the disc. The solar wind speed remained
mostly in the range 340-400km/s, declining slightly in the second
half of the UT day. The IMF BZ component varied between +/-6nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11110000
Cocos Island 1 10110000
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 2 11210001
Learmonth 1 10110000
Alice Springs 2 13100000
Norfolk Island 0 11000000
Culgoora 1 11110000
Gingin 1 11110000
Camden 1 11110000
Canberra 0 10010000
Launceston 1 10110000
Hobart 0 10010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 4 22221100
Mawson 6 32222101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 7 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 2331 133-
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jun 5 Quiet
17 Jun 5 Quiet
18 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the Australian and
Antarctic regions during the last 24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Short-wave fadeouts are possible on 16-Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jun 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jun 75 0 to 15% below predicted monthly values
17 Jun 75 0 to 15% below predicted monthly values
18 Jun 75 0 to 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 13
June and is current for 14-16 Jun. Nighttime MUF depressions
were observed in the Niue Island region and in Northern Australia.
Otherwise, MUFs were near monthly predicted values. MUFs are
expected to be near to predicted monthly values to mildly depressed
over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 76500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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