[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jun 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 16 09:30:46 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    1139UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 130/84


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jun             17 Jun             18 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours, 
with an M1 X-ray flare from region 2085 (S19) on the west limb 
at 15/1139UT. A nearby CME observed soon after is directed too 
far south to be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to be 
low to moderate on 16-Jun, and low on 17-18 Jun, as the most 
active regions rotate off the disc. The solar wind speed remained 
mostly in the range 340-400km/s, declining slightly in the second 
half of the UT day. The IMF BZ component varied between +/-6nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110000
      Cocos Island         1   10110000
      Darwin               1   11110001
      Townsville           2   11210001
      Learmonth            1   10110000
      Alice Springs        2   13100000
      Norfolk Island       0   11000000
      Culgoora             1   11110000
      Gingin               1   11110000
      Camden               1   11110000
      Canberra             0   10010000
      Launceston           1   10110000
      Hobart               0   10010000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                4   22221100
      Mawson               6   32222101

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        7   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   2331 133-     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jun     5    Quiet
17 Jun     5    Quiet
18 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the Australian and 
Antarctic regions during the last 24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Short-wave fadeouts are possible on 16-Jun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jun    77

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jun    75    0 to 15% below predicted monthly values
17 Jun    75    0 to 15% below predicted monthly values
18 Jun    75    0 to 15% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 13 
June and is current for 14-16 Jun. Nighttime MUF depressions 
were observed in the Niue Island region and in Northern Australia. 
Otherwise, MUFs were near monthly predicted values. MUFs are 
expected to be near to predicted monthly values to mildly depressed 
over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 388 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    76500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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