[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jun 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 15 09:30:19 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    1929UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 144/98


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jun             16 Jun             17 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours with 
an M1.4 flare at 14/1929UT, most likely from the east limb from 
which a CME was observed to erupt shortly thereafter. This CME 
is not Earth-directed. Solar activity is expected to be low to 
moderate for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed mostly varied 
in the range 350-400km/s. The IMF BZ component varied between 
+/-6nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22210011
      Cocos Island         2   12210010
      Darwin               3   22210011
      Townsville           4   22211011
      Learmonth            4   22211111
      Alice Springs        1   12100000
      Norfolk Island       3   22110011
      Culgoora             3   22110011
      Gingin               4   22210111
      Camden               3   22210011
      Canberra             3   22210000
      Launceston           4   22220111
      Hobart               3   12220000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     3   11310000
      Casey                6   33211111
      Mawson              17   54322141

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2101 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jun     5    Quiet
16 Jun     5    Quiet
17 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the Australian region 
during the last 24 hours. There were unsettled to minor storm 
periods in the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet conditions are 
expected for 15-17 Jun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Short-wave fadeouts are possible over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Jun    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jun    80    Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun    80    Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 13 
June and is current for 14-16 Jun. MUF depressions were observed 
in Northern Australia over the last 24 hours. Otherwise, MUFs 
were near monthly predicted values. MUFs are expected to be near 
to predicted monthly values over the next 3 days, with some mild 
depressions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 353 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:    45900 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list