[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jun 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 14 09:30:17 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.6    0756UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 153/108


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jun             15 Jun             16 Jun
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            140/94             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours, 
with C-class flares from several regions and an M2 flare from 
region 2087 (S18E41). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. A 
large CME from 12-Jun appears to be directed too far south to 
reach Earth. Solar activity is expected to be moderate over the 
next 3 days, with a chance of X-class events. Increasing low-energy 
proton flux suggests the possible arrival of remnants of the 
slow 10-Jun CME on 14-Jun. The solar wind speed hovered around 
350km/s, while the IMF Bz component fluctuated between -6/+7nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100011
      Cocos Island         1   11110010
      Darwin               2   11100111
      Townsville           3   11101112
      Learmonth            1   10201000
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Norfolk Island       1   11000011
      Culgoora             2   11100111
      Gingin               0   11000000
      Camden               1   11100011
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Launceston           1   11001010
      Hobart               0   00000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   11111010
      Mawson               4   11111113

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1101 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active at high latitudes
15 Jun     5    Quiet
16 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the Australian and 
Antarctic regions over the last 24 hours. Some unsettled to active 
periods are possible at high latitudes on 14-Jun with the arrival 
of the slow 10-Jun CME. Quiet conditions are expected on 15-16 
Jun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions are possible at high latitudes 
on 14 Jun if geomagnetic activity increases due to CME arrival. 
Short-wave fadeouts are possible over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Jun    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jun    75    Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun    75    Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mild MUF depressions were observed in the Niue Island 
region and in Northern Australia. Otherwise, MUFs were near monthly 
predicted values. MUFs are expected to be near to predicted monthly 
values over the next 3 days, with some mild depressions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 468 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:   106000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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