[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jun 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 13 09:30:17 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.0    0421UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.8    0937UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M2.7    1021UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.3    1814UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.0    2114UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M3.1    2218UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun: 175/129


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jun             14 Jun             15 Jun
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            165/119            155/109

COMMENT: Solar activity was high over the last 24 hours, with 
six M-class flares from three different regions: 2085 (S24W57), 
2087 (S22E49) and 2089 (N17E05). The largest of these was an 
M3.1 event at 12/2216UT, probably from region 2085. An associated 
type II radio sweep was observed with shock speed estimates ranging 
600-1680km/s. Satellite imagery is currently insufficient to 
determine whether there is a related geoeffective CME. Solar 
activity is expected to remain moderate to high for the next 
3 days. The solar wind speed declined gradually from ~530km/s 
to ~380km/s with the waning of coronal hole effects. The IMF 
Bz component was mostly neutral for the first half of the UT 
day, varying from -2/+4nT since around 14UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100001
      Cocos Island         1   12100000
      Darwin               2   11100002
      Townsville           2   12200011
      Learmonth            2   12200000
      Alice Springs        1   11100001
      Norfolk Island       0   11000000
      Culgoora             1   11100001
      Gingin               1   11100000
      Camden               1   11100000
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Launceston           2   12100001
      Hobart               0   01000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000000
      Casey                4   12311011
      Mawson               5   23311010

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun : 
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              16   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   2212 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active
14 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the Australian region 
over the last 24 hours. Some unsettled to active periods were 
observed in Antarctic in the first half of the UT day. Active 
periods are possible at high latitudes on 13 Jun if the 10-Jun 
CMEs arrive, with a return to quiet periods on 14-15-Jun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Short-wave fadeouts are possible over the next 3 days. 
Mildly degraded conditions are possible on 13-14 Jun if geomagnetic 
activity increases due to CME arrival.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jun    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jun    80    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun    80    Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 10 
June and is current for 11-13 Jun. Mild nighttime MUF depressions 
were observed in Northern and Southern Australia. Otherwise, 
MUFs were near monthly predicted values. MUFs are expected to 
be near to predicted monthly values over the next 3 days, with 
some mild depressions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 547 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   171000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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