[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jun 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 13 09:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 0421UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.8 0937UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.7 1021UT possible lower European
M1.3 1814UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.0 2114UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M3.1 2218UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun: 175/129
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was high over the last 24 hours, with
six M-class flares from three different regions: 2085 (S24W57),
2087 (S22E49) and 2089 (N17E05). The largest of these was an
M3.1 event at 12/2216UT, probably from region 2085. An associated
type II radio sweep was observed with shock speed estimates ranging
600-1680km/s. Satellite imagery is currently insufficient to
determine whether there is a related geoeffective CME. Solar
activity is expected to remain moderate to high for the next
3 days. The solar wind speed declined gradually from ~530km/s
to ~380km/s with the waning of coronal hole effects. The IMF
Bz component was mostly neutral for the first half of the UT
day, varying from -2/+4nT since around 14UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 1 12100000
Darwin 2 11100002
Townsville 2 12200011
Learmonth 2 12200000
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Norfolk Island 0 11000000
Culgoora 1 11100001
Gingin 1 11100000
Camden 1 11100000
Canberra 0 01000000
Launceston 2 12100001
Hobart 0 01000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 4 12311011
Mawson 5 23311010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2212 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
14 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the Australian region
over the last 24 hours. Some unsettled to active periods were
observed in Antarctic in the first half of the UT day. Active
periods are possible at high latitudes on 13 Jun if the 10-Jun
CMEs arrive, with a return to quiet periods on 14-15-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Short-wave fadeouts are possible over the next 3 days.
Mildly degraded conditions are possible on 13-14 Jun if geomagnetic
activity increases due to CME arrival.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jun 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 10
June and is current for 11-13 Jun. Mild nighttime MUF depressions
were observed in Northern and Southern Australia. Otherwise,
MUFs were near monthly predicted values. MUFs are expected to
be near to predicted monthly values over the next 3 days, with
some mild depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 547 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 171000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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