[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jun 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 12 09:30:18 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.8    0534UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M3.0    0809UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  X1.0    0906UT  probable   all    Mid East/Indian
  M3.9    2103UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun: 168/122


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jun             13 Jun             14 Jun
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            170/124            165/119

COMMENT: Solar activity was high over the last 24 hours. Region 
2087 (S18E56) produced the largest event, an X1.0 flare at 10/0906UT. 
The same region also produced two M-class flares and several 
C-class flares. Regions 2080, 2082 and 2089 were also active. 
Three spot groups showed signs of growth. No Earth-directed CMEs 
were observed. Solar activity is expected to remain moderate 
to high for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed rose gradually 
to around ~650km/s most likely to due to an equatorial coronal 
hole and has since declined to ~530km/s. The IMF Bz component 
varied between +/-5nT at the start of the UT day, but has been 
mostly neutral for the last 6 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22121111
      Cocos Island         3   12121100
      Darwin               4   22211111
      Townsville           5   22221111
      Learmonth            5   22221210
      Alice Springs        4   11220211
      Norfolk Island       4   12121111
      Culgoora             3   12120111
      Gingin               6   22121320
      Camden               4   22120111
      Canberra             2   11120110
      Launceston           6   22131211
      Hobart               4   21121111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     3   10031100
      Casey               16   32221621
      Mawson              20   24342353

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun : 
      Darwin              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              10   (Quiet)
      Canberra            29   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   2122 3223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jun     6    Quiet
13 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active
14 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the Australian region 
over the last 24 hours. Some unsettled to storm level periods 
were observed in Antarctic. Quiet conditions are expected for 
the Australian region for 12 Jun, with active periods possible 
at high latitudes on 13-14 Jun if the 10-Jun CME arrives.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Short-wave fadeouts are possible over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Jun    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jun    85    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun    85    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 10 
June and is current for 11-13 Jun. Nighttime MUF depressions 
were observed in the Niue Island region and in Northern Australia. 
Otherwise, MUFs were near monthly predicted values. MUFs are 
expected to be near to predicted monthly values over the next 
3 days, with some mild depressions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 425 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    41400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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