[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jun 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 11 09:30:19 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X2.2    1142UT  probable   all    European
  X1.5    1252UT  probable   all    European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun: 166/120


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jun             12 Jun             13 Jun
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            160/114            160/114

COMMENT: Solar activity was high over the last 24 hours, with 
two X-flares from region 2087 (S15) on the east limb. These were 
an X2.2 event at 10/1142UT and an X1.5 at 10/1252UT. A CME was 
associated with each of these flares, the second being larger 
and faster than the first. Most of the mass was ejected to the 
east, but there is a possibility Earth could receive a glancing 
blow from the faster CME on 13-Jun. Solar activity is expected 
to be moderate to high over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed 
has increased from ~400km/s to ~450km/s. The IMF Bz component 
varied between -6/+8nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11212211
      Cocos Island         3   01122210
      Darwin               5   11222212
      Townsville           5   11222212
      Learmonth            5   12222211
      Alice Springs        5   11222202
      Norfolk Island       3   01112210
      Culgoora             3   01112201
      Gingin               4   11211211
      Camden               4   11112202
      Canberra             3   01112201
      Launceston           3   01212201
      Hobart               2   011-----    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00101000
      Casey                7   13322111
      Mawson              16   32333225

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   2222 1231     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jun     5    Quiet
12 Jun     6    Quiet
13 Jun    15    Active periods at high latitudes

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the Australian region 
over the last 24 hours. Some unsettled to minor storm levels 
were observed in Antarctic. Quiet conditions are expected for 
the Australian region for 11-12 Jun, with active periods possible 
at high latitudes on 13-Jun if the 10-Jun CME arrives.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Short-wave fadeouts are possible over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jun    78

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jun    80    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun    80    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 10 
June and is current for 11-13 Jun. Nighttime MUF depressions 
were observed in the Niue Island region and in Northern Australia. 
Otherwise, MUFs were near monthly predicted values. MUFs are 
expected to be near to predicted monthly values over the next 
3 days, with some mild depressions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 517 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    36300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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