[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jun 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 10 09:30:29 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun: 161/115


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jun             11 Jun             12 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            165/119

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. C-class 
flares were observed from regions 2080 (S11W15) and 2085 (S19W12), 
with the latter producing a C9 event at 09/1229UT. Both these 
regions showed signs of growth. A CME with an associated type 
II radio sweep was observed from the east limb, but is not Earth-directed. 
Low to moderate activity is expected for the next 3 days, with 
M-class events possible from new regions rotating onto the disc. 
Region 2065 (S19) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due 
to return around 9 Jun. The solar wind speed declined gradually 
from ~600km/s to ~400km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly neutral, 
with a negative bias. The solar wind speed is expected to show 
a moderate increase over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12220110
      Cocos Island         3   12220010
      Darwin               3   12210011
      Townsville           3   12220011
      Learmonth            4   12220121
      Alice Springs        2   11210011
      Norfolk Island       2   01220010
      Culgoora             3   11220110
      Gingin               4   12220120
      Camden               4   1222-110
      Canberra             1   01120000
      Launceston           4   12230110
      Hobart               4   12230110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     4   01140100
      Casey                5   12320120
      Mawson              23   22532263

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jun : 
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              42   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            38   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        29
           Planetary             37   4665 5432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jun     4    Quiet
11 Jun     5    Quiet
12 Jun     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed over the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours, with a brief unsettled period 
at high latitudes between 9-12UT. Brief storm level periods were 
observed in Antarctic. Quiet conditions are expected for the 
Australian region for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: There is a slight chance of short-wave fadeouts due 
to the possibility of increased solar activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Jun    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jun    75    Near predicted monthly values
11 Jun    80    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed in the Niue Island region, 
and also overnight in Northern Australia. Otherwise, MUFs were 
near monthly predicted values. MUFs are expected to be near to 
predicted monthly values over the next 3 days, with some mild 
depressions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.7E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 525 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:   137000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list