[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 June 14 issued 2340 UT on 08 Jun 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 9 09:40:03 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 09 JUNE - 11 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jun: 149/104


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jun             10 Jun             11 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            160/114            165/119

COMMENT: Solar activity has been at low levels during the last 
24 hours. Today's largest event was a long duration C1.9 flare 
that started at 0834 UT, peaked at 1002UT and ended at 1049UT. 
The flare was from a region behind the east limb. Solar wind 
speed showed a gradual increase from 400 km/s to nearly 600 km/s 
during the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between 
approximately +/-20 nT during the first half of the UT day and 
then gradually became more stable close to the normal value by 
the end of the day. Low levels of solar activity with the possibility 
of M-class activity may be expected during the next three days. 
Region 2065 (S19) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due 
to return around 9 Jun.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jun: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 08 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region      21   34544321
      Cocos Island        18   34533321
      Darwin              21   34544322
      Townsville          25   34644321
      Learmonth           26   35554321
      Alice Springs       21   34544321
      Norfolk Island      17   33543221
      Culgoora            20   24544321
      Gingin              22   34544331
      Camden              21   34544321
      Canberra            15   24533210
      Launceston          23   35544321
      Hobart              20   24544321    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    42   26666211
      Casey               18   44533221
      Mawson              49   46754325

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jun : 
      Darwin              64   (Active)
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           11   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        6   (Quiet)
      Gingin              51   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            65   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        26
           Planetary             40                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             13   2221 2344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jun    15    Quiet to Active
10 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Periods of minor geomagnetic storm were observed today, 
probably due to an unexpected glancing blow of a CME that was 
observed on 4 June. Solar wind stream is still going strong. 
Geomagnetic activity may go up to active levels on 9 June and 
then gradually decline to quiet to unsettled conditions on 10 
June and quiet conditions on 11 June. In the IPS magnetometer 
data for 08 Jun, a weak (34nT) impulse was observed at 0730UT.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
10 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Variable depressions in MUFs were observed due to low 
EUV levels. Minor MUF depressions may be observed on 9 and possibly 
10 June. More normal conditions may be expected on 11 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Jun    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jun    65    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 Jun    70    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
11 Jun    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable depressions to 30% observed in the Australian 
region due to low EUV levels. Minor MUF depressions may be observed 
on 9 and possibly 10 June. More normal conditions may be expected 
on 11 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jun
Speed: 358 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:    50800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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