[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 June 14 issued 2340 UT on 08 Jun 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 9 09:40:03 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 09 JUNE - 11 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jun: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at low levels during the last
24 hours. Today's largest event was a long duration C1.9 flare
that started at 0834 UT, peaked at 1002UT and ended at 1049UT.
The flare was from a region behind the east limb. Solar wind
speed showed a gradual increase from 400 km/s to nearly 600 km/s
during the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between
approximately +/-20 nT during the first half of the UT day and
then gradually became more stable close to the normal value by
the end of the day. Low levels of solar activity with the possibility
of M-class activity may be expected during the next three days.
Region 2065 (S19) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due
to return around 9 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jun: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 08 Jun : A K
Australian Region 21 34544321
Cocos Island 18 34533321
Darwin 21 34544322
Townsville 25 34644321
Learmonth 26 35554321
Alice Springs 21 34544321
Norfolk Island 17 33543221
Culgoora 20 24544321
Gingin 22 34544331
Camden 21 34544321
Canberra 15 24533210
Launceston 23 35544321
Hobart 20 24544321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jun :
Macquarie Island 42 26666211
Casey 18 44533221
Mawson 49 46754325
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jun :
Darwin 64 (Active)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 11 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 6 (Quiet)
Gingin 51 (Unsettled)
Canberra 65 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 13 2221 2344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jun 15 Quiet to Active
10 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Periods of minor geomagnetic storm were observed today,
probably due to an unexpected glancing blow of a CME that was
observed on 4 June. Solar wind stream is still going strong.
Geomagnetic activity may go up to active levels on 9 June and
then gradually decline to quiet to unsettled conditions on 10
June and quiet conditions on 11 June. In the IPS magnetometer
data for 08 Jun, a weak (34nT) impulse was observed at 0730UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable depressions in MUFs were observed due to low
EUV levels. Minor MUF depressions may be observed on 9 and possibly
10 June. More normal conditions may be expected on 11 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jun 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jun 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 Jun 70 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
11 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable depressions to 30% observed in the Australian
region due to low EUV levels. Minor MUF depressions may be observed
on 9 and possibly 10 June. More normal conditions may be expected
on 11 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jun
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 50800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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