[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 June 14 issued 0113 UT on 07 Jun 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 7 11:13:18 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 07 JUNE - 09 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    1931UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jun: 133/87


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jun             08 Jun             09 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity has been at moderate levels during the 
last 24 hours. Four C-class and one M1 flares were observed during 
this period. All these flares came from region 2080 (S12E18). 
The largest event of the day, the M1 flare, peaked at 1931UT. 
Solar wind speed mostly stayed around 350 km/s during the UT 
day today. The Bz component of IMF mostly varied between +/-5 
nT during this day. Minor coronal hole effects may keep the solar 
wind stream slightly enhanced for the next two days. Low levels 
of solar activity with the possibility of M-class activity may 
be expected during the next three days. ACE EPAM data indicates 
an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 06/2010UT, which 
can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next 
24-36 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000111
      Cocos Island         2   11000121
      Darwin               1   11000111
      Townsville           2   12000211
      Learmonth            2   21000121
      Alice Springs        1   11000111
      Norfolk Island       2   12000111
      Culgoora             1   11000111
      Gingin               2   21000121
      Camden               1   11000111
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Launceston           2   12000112
      Hobart               1   11000011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   10000001
      Casey                5   23100122
      Mawson              14   43210153

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jun : 
      Darwin              34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2202 1233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at Quiet levels today. 
Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions may be expected for 
the next two days (7 and 8 June). Conditions may decline to mostly 
quiet levels on the third day (9 June).

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
08 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
09 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable depressions in MUFs were observed due to low 
EUV levels. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for 
the next three days with some possibility of slight improvements 
in HF conditions on 9 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jun    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jun    60    15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
08 Jun    60    15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
09 Jun    65    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable depressions to 35% observed in the Australian 
region due to low EUV levels. Nearly similar conditions may be 
expected for the next three days. Slight improvement in HF conditions 
may be possible on 9 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jun
Speed: 342 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:    43000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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