[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jun 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 6 09:30:30 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jun             07 Jun             08 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity has been at very low levels during the 
last 24 hours. Only a few B-class events were observed. Solar 
wind speed mostly stayed around 350 km/s during the UT day today. 
The Bz component of IMF mostly varied between +/-5 nT during 
this day. Minor coronal hole effects may keep the solar wind 
stream slightly enhanced during the next three days. Low levels 
of solar activity with the possibility of M-class activity may 
be expected during the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   01221002
      Cocos Island         3   11211002
      Darwin               6   13121013
      Townsville           4   12221002
      Learmonth            4   11121013
      Alice Springs        2   01121002
      Norfolk Island       2   01120012
      Culgoora             3   01221002
      Gingin               4   01211013
      Camden               3   01221002
      Canberra             2   01120002
      Launceston           6   01232013
      Hobart               4   01231002    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     3   00131001
      Casey                5   12210113
      Mawson              17   33231026

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun : 
      Darwin              12   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1212 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at Quiet levels today. 
Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions may be expected for 
the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
07 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
08 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable depressions in MUFs were observed due to low 
EUV levels. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for 
the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Jun    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jun    60    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
07 Jun    60    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
08 Jun    60    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable depressions to 35% observed in the Australian 
region due to low EUV levels. Expect nearly similar conditions 
over the next three days. Note MUFs are expected to remain lower 
than predicted due to this decrease in EUV.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: 340 km/sec  Density:    7.9 p/cc  Temp:    42700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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