[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jun 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 6 09:30:30 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at very low levels during the
last 24 hours. Only a few B-class events were observed. Solar
wind speed mostly stayed around 350 km/s during the UT day today.
The Bz component of IMF mostly varied between +/-5 nT during
this day. Minor coronal hole effects may keep the solar wind
stream slightly enhanced during the next three days. Low levels
of solar activity with the possibility of M-class activity may
be expected during the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 01221002
Cocos Island 3 11211002
Darwin 6 13121013
Townsville 4 12221002
Learmonth 4 11121013
Alice Springs 2 01121002
Norfolk Island 2 01120012
Culgoora 3 01221002
Gingin 4 01211013
Camden 3 01221002
Canberra 2 01120002
Launceston 6 01232013
Hobart 4 01231002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 00131001
Casey 5 12210113
Mawson 17 33231026
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1212 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at Quiet levels today.
Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions may be expected for
the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable depressions in MUFs were observed due to low
EUV levels. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for
the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jun 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jun 60 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
07 Jun 60 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
08 Jun 60 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable depressions to 35% observed in the Australian
region due to low EUV levels. Expect nearly similar conditions
over the next three days. Note MUFs are expected to remain lower
than predicted due to this decrease in EUV.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 7.9 p/cc Temp: 42700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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