[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jun 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 5 09:30:18 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at low levels during the last
24 hours. Today's largest flare was a C2.1 flare from region
2077(S05E03). This flare peaked at 0136UT.Solar wind speed mostly
stayed around 350 km/s during the UT day today, reaching close
to 400 km/s for a short while around 0700UT. The Bz component
of IMF varied between +/-5 nT during this day. Minor coronal
hole effects may keep the solar wind stream slightly enhanced
during the next three days. Low levels of solar activity with
the possibility of M-class activity may be expected during the
next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11211101
Cocos Island 2 11210101
Darwin 4 1221111-
Townsville 3 11211101
Learmonth 2 11200111
Alice Springs 2 11200101
Norfolk Island 2 11210001
Culgoora 2 11111101
Gingin 2 11100112
Camden 3 11211101
Canberra 0 00100000
Launceston 3 11112201
Hobart 2 11111101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 00020100
Casey 4 22201112
Mawson 17 13211146
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun :
Darwin 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 4301 1312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet levels today. Quiet
to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions may be expected for the next
three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable depressions in MUFs were observed due to declining
EUV levels resulting from a decrease in active regions on the
Sun. Expect nearly similar conditions over the next three days.
Note MUFs are expected to remain lower than predicted due to
this decrease in EUV.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jun 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jun 58 15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
06 Jun 58 15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
07 Jun 58 15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable depressions to 35% observed in the Australian
region due to declining EUV levels resulting from a decrease
in active regions on the Sun. Expect nearly similar conditions
over the next three days. Note MUFs are expected to remain lower
than predicted due to this decrease in EUV.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 331 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 44600 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list