[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jun 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 5 09:30:18 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jun             06 Jun             07 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity has been at low levels during the last 
24 hours. Today's largest flare was a C2.1 flare from region 
2077(S05E03). This flare peaked at 0136UT.Solar wind speed mostly 
stayed around 350 km/s during the UT day today, reaching close 
to 400 km/s for a short while around 0700UT. The Bz component 
of IMF varied between +/-5 nT during this day. Minor coronal 
hole effects may keep the solar wind stream slightly enhanced 
during the next three days. Low levels of solar activity with 
the possibility of M-class activity may be expected during the 
next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11211101
      Cocos Island         2   11210101
      Darwin               4   1221111-
      Townsville           3   11211101
      Learmonth            2   11200111
      Alice Springs        2   11200101
      Norfolk Island       2   11210001
      Culgoora             2   11111101
      Gingin               2   11100112
      Camden               3   11211101
      Canberra             0   00100000
      Launceston           3   11112201
      Hobart               2   11111101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     1   00020100
      Casey                4   22201112
      Mawson              17   13211146

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun : 
      Darwin              40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   4301 1312     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
06 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet levels today. Quiet 
to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions may be expected for the next 
three days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
06 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
07 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable depressions in MUFs were observed due to declining 
EUV levels resulting from a decrease in active regions on the 
Sun. Expect nearly similar conditions over the next three days. 
Note MUFs are expected to remain lower than predicted due to 
this decrease in EUV.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jun    56

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jun    58    15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
06 Jun    58    15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
07 Jun    58    15 to 25% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable depressions to 35% observed in the Australian 
region due to declining EUV levels resulting from a decrease 
in active regions on the Sun. Expect nearly similar conditions 
over the next three days. Note MUFs are expected to remain lower 
than predicted due to this decrease in EUV.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 331 km/sec  Density:    6.0 p/cc  Temp:    44600 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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