[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 June 14 issued 2331 UT on 03 Jun 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 4 09:31:20 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    0409UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jun             05 Jun             06 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity has been at moderate levels during the 
last 24 hours. One M1 flare was observed from region 2077(S08E17). 
This flare peaked at 0409UT.Solar wind speed mostly stayed between 
300 and 320 km/s during the first half of the UT day today and 
went up to around 360 km/s during the second half. The Bz component 
of IMF varied between +/-7 nT during this day, staying positive 
during most parts of the day. Minor coronal hole effects may 
keep the solar wind stream slightly enhanced during the next 
three days. Low levels of solar activity with the possibility 
of M-class activity may be expected during the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 03 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22110011
      Cocos Island         2   22110010
      Darwin               5   32220111
      Townsville           4   22220111
      Learmonth            5   32220011
      Alice Springs        3   22120010
      Norfolk Island       2   22110010
      Culgoora             2   22110001
      Gingin               3   22110011
      Camden               2   22110010
      Canberra             1   21010000
      Launceston           3   22110011
      Hobart               2   22110000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   11000000
      Casey                4   32120011
      Mawson               9   53120110

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   0100 0113     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
06 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed today. Nearly 
similar conditions may be expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
05 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
06 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable depressions in MUFs were observed due to declining 
EUV levels resulting from a decrease in active regions on the 
Sun. Expect similar conditions over the next three days. Note 
MUFs are expected to remain lower than predicted due to this 
decrease in EUV.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jun    56

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jun    60    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
05 Jun    60    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
06 Jun    60    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 3 June 
and is current for 3-4 Jun. Variable depressions to 20% observed 
in the Australian region due to declining EUV levels resulting 
from a decrease in active regions on the Sun. Expect similar 
conditions over the next three days. Note MUFs are expected to 
remain lower than predicted due to this decrease in EUV.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 297 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    40300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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