[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 June 14 issued 2350 UT on 02 Jun 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 3 09:50:22 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jun             04 Jun             05 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 02 June 
and expected to remain Very Low to Low over the next three days. 
The solar wind ranged between 260-320 km/s and the Bz component 
has varied between +4/-9 nT over the last 24 hours. A small coronal 
hole is entering a geo-effective position around 40 degrees west 
and just south of the equatorial region of the Sun and is expected 
to elevate the solar wind stream slightly today. It appears to 
be associated with a negative Bz component of the IMF, currently 
-8nT. There is also a coronal hole just west of the central meridian 
near the equatorial region expected to be geo-effective in two 
days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000001
      Cocos Island         0   01100000
      Darwin               2   11110012
      Townsville           1   11100011
      Learmonth            1   11100001
      Alice Springs        0   01000001
      Norfolk Island       1   03000000
      Culgoora             1   01000011
      Gingin               0   10100000
      Camden               1   11000011
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           1   11000011
      Hobart               0   01000001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                3   22200011
      Mawson               6   41100013

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1111 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jun    12    Unsettled
04 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jun    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet in the Australian during 
the UT day, 02 June. Expect an increase to Unsettled levels in 
geomagnetic activity today in the Australian region with isolated 
cases of Active levels at high latitudes due to a weak coronal 
hole. Tomorrow, 04 June, expect Quiet to Unsettled levels of 
activity. On 05 June another small coronal hole is expected to 
become geo-effective returning to Unsettled conditions in the 
Australian region with isolated cases of Active levels at high 
latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jun    56

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jun    60    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
04 Jun    60    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
05 Jun    60    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable depressions to 35% observed in the Australian 
region due to declining EUV levels resulting from a decrease 
in active regions on the Sun. Expect similar conditions over 
the next three days. Note MUFs are expected to remain lower than 
predicted due to this decrease in EUV.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 301 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    31700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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