[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 June 14 issued 2350 UT on 02 Jun 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 3 09:50:22 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 02 June
and expected to remain Very Low to Low over the next three days.
The solar wind ranged between 260-320 km/s and the Bz component
has varied between +4/-9 nT over the last 24 hours. A small coronal
hole is entering a geo-effective position around 40 degrees west
and just south of the equatorial region of the Sun and is expected
to elevate the solar wind stream slightly today. It appears to
be associated with a negative Bz component of the IMF, currently
-8nT. There is also a coronal hole just west of the central meridian
near the equatorial region expected to be geo-effective in two
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Darwin 2 11110012
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 1 11100001
Alice Springs 0 01000001
Norfolk Island 1 03000000
Culgoora 1 01000011
Gingin 0 10100000
Camden 1 11000011
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 11000011
Hobart 0 01000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 22200011
Mawson 6 41100013
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jun 12 Unsettled
04 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jun 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet in the Australian during
the UT day, 02 June. Expect an increase to Unsettled levels in
geomagnetic activity today in the Australian region with isolated
cases of Active levels at high latitudes due to a weak coronal
hole. Tomorrow, 04 June, expect Quiet to Unsettled levels of
activity. On 05 June another small coronal hole is expected to
become geo-effective returning to Unsettled conditions in the
Australian region with isolated cases of Active levels at high
latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jun 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jun 60 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
04 Jun 60 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
05 Jun 60 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable depressions to 35% observed in the Australian
region due to declining EUV levels resulting from a decrease
in active regions on the Sun. Expect similar conditions over
the next three days. Note MUFs are expected to remain lower than
predicted due to this decrease in EUV.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 301 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 31700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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