[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jun 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 2 09:30:17 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun: 103/52


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jun             03 Jun             04 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 01 June. Two 
C-class X-ray flares were observed during the day, the largest 
was a C2.4-class flare occurring at 01/0137UT from active region 
2079. Expect solar activity to remain Low for the next 3 days. 
The solar wind remained light over the last 24 hours ranging 
between 320 and 280 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF varied 
between +6/-4nT during the last 24 hours. Region 2056 (N4) which 
previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return around 1 Jun.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11120100
      Cocos Island         1   1012000-
      Darwin               3   11220101
      Townsville           4   12220111
      Learmonth            2   11120100
      Alice Springs        3   1122010-
      Norfolk Island       1   11010000
      Culgoora             2   11120100
      Gingin               1   1011010-
      Camden               2   11120101
      Canberra             0   00010000
      Launceston           2   11120100
      Hobart               1   10110000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   0000000-
      Casey                2   1111011-
      Mawson               3   1121011-
      Davis                3   01210031

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2100 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jun     4    Quiet
03 Jun     4    Quiet
04 Jun     4    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet in the Australian 
and Antarctic regions during the UT day, 01 June. Expect mostly 
Quiet conditions to prevail for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jun    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jun    60    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
03 Jun    60    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
04 Jun    60    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 30 May 
and is current for 31 May to 2 Jun. Variable depressions to 40% 
observed in the Australian region due to declining EUV levels 
resulting from a decrease in active regions on the Sun. Expect 
similar conditions over the next three days. Note MUFs are expected 
to remain lower than predicted due to this decrease in EUV.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 330 km/sec  Density:    7.1 p/cc  Temp:    22500 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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