[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 May 14 issued 2331 UT on 31 May 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 1 09:31:21 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 104/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jun             02 Jun             03 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 31 May. Two C-class 
X-ray flares were observed. Expect solar activity to remain Very 
Low to Low for the next 3 days. The solar wind remained light 
over the last 24 hours decreasing from 370 and 310 km/s and the 
Bz component of the IMF was oriented mostly northward during 
this period. Region 2056 (N4) which previously produced M-flare(s) 
is due to return around 1 Jun.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 31 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000100
      Cocos Island         1   11000100
      Darwin               2   11100111
      Townsville           2   21100111
      Learmonth            1   21000100
      Alice Springs        2   21100100
      Norfolk Island       1   11000011
      Culgoora             2   22000001
      Gingin               0   11000000
      Camden               1   12000100
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Launceston           0   11000000
      Hobart               0   11000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   12101000
      Mawson               2   22110000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   1122 2242     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jun     2    Quiet
02 Jun     4    Quiet
03 Jun     4    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet in the Australian and 
Antarctic region during the UT day, 31 May. Expect mostly Quiet 
conditions for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 May    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      115
May      91
Jun      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jun    65    15 to 35% below predicted monthly values
02 Jun    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                35%
03 Jun    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                35%

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 30 May 
and is current for 31 May to 2 Jun. Variable depressions to 40% 
observed in the Australian region as EUV levels decline due to 
a decrease in sunspot numbers. Expect similar conditions over 
the next three days. Note MUFs are expected to remain lower than 
predicted due to this decrease in EUV.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 347 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:    30800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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