[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jun 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 8 09:30:48 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 08 JUNE - 10 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jun: 137/91


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Jun             09 Jun             10 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             155/109

COMMENT: Solar activity has been at low levels during the last 
24 hours. Today's largest event was a C3 flare that peaked at 
0625UT. Solar wind speed mostly stayed around 350 km/s until 
a weak shock arrived at 1608UT. After the shock solar wind speed 
increased to over 400 km/s and remained steady at that level 
for the rest of the day. The Bz component of IMF was stable and 
close the normal value until the shock arrived. Bz fluctuated 
between approximately +10/-14 nT during the rest of the day. 
Minor coronal hole effects may keep the solar wind stream slightly 
enhanced on 8 June. Low levels of solar activity with the possibility 
of M-class activity may be expected during the next three days. 
A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1608UT on 07 Jun. 
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
07/1945UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 07 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   11211323
      Cocos Island         5   11210322
      Darwin               9   21211423
      Townsville           9   21221423
      Learmonth           10   21220433
      Alice Springs        9   12211423
      Norfolk Island       6   11210323
      Culgoora             7   11211323
      Gingin               8   21210333
      Camden               7   11221323
      Canberra             4   01210312
      Launceston           9   11221423
      Hobart               7   11221323    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     4   00131211
      Casey               13   23322433
      Mawson              18   33332335

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jun : 
      Darwin              10   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   3200 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jun     5    Quiet
10 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity varied from quiet to active levels 
today. Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions with isolated 
active periods may be expected on 8 June. Conditions may decline 
to and stay at mostly quiet levels on 9 and 10 June. In the IPS 
magnetometer data for 07 Jun, a weak (14nT) impulse was observed 
at 1652UT.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
09 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
10 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable depressions in MUFs were observed due to low 
EUV levels. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for 
the next three days with some possibility of slight improvements 
in HF conditions from 9 June.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Jun    62

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      80
Jun      92
Jul      91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Jun    60    15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
09 Jun    62    10-20% below predicted monthly values
10 Jun    62    10-20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable depressions to 35% observed in the Australian 
region due to low EUV levels. Nearly similar conditions may be 
expected for the next three days. Slight improvement in HF conditions 
may be possible from 9 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jun
Speed: 353 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:    45700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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