[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 25 09:30:28 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a single C-class event from region 2121 (N07E45). No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. Activity for the next 3 days is expected
to be low. The solar wind varied between 300-410 km/s and is
currently around 320 km/s. The IMF Bz component varied between
+/-5 nT. An equatorial coronal hole is expected to rotate into
a geoeffective position during 26-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11121011
Cocos Island 2 11120010
Darwin 3 12121011
Townsville 4 12121012
Learmonth 2 01221010
Alice Springs 4 221210--
Norfolk Island 2 11110021
Culgoora 3 11121011
Gingin 4 121220--
Camden 3 11121011
Canberra 1 01110000
Launceston 3 12122010
Hobart 1 01111000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00002000
Casey 4 13211110
Mawson 5 23220002
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 1010 1132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jul 6 Quiet
26 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet in the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Some unsettled periods were observed
in Antarctica. Conditions are expected to be quiet on 25-Jul
and quiet to unsettled on 26-27 Jul, due to the effects of an
equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-fair
26 Jul Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-fair
27 Jul Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jul 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jul 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
26 Jul 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
27 Jul 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 23 July
and is current for 24-26 Jul. MUFs were depressed over much of
the Australian region over the last 24 hours, with some nighttime
enhancements. Depressed MUFs are likely for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 318 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 30100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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