[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 26 09:30:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a single C-class event from region 2121 (N08E30). No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. Activity for the next 3 days is expected
to be low, with a chance of higher activity as a number of active
regions rotate onto the disc. The solar wind varied between 300-400
km/s and the IMF Bz component between +/-6 nT. An equatorial
coronal hole is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position
late on 26-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 21220000
Cocos Island 2 11210000
Darwin 3 22220001
Townsville 4 22220101
Learmonth 3 22220000
Alice Springs 2 21120001
Norfolk Island 2 11120001
Culgoora 2 11220000
Gingin 2 22110000
Camden 3 21220000
Canberra 3 21220000
Launceston 3 21220001
Hobart 3 21220000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 10210000
Casey 5 23221010
Mawson 13 53332200
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul :
Darwin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1112 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region, with unsettled to minor storm levels reached briefly
in Antarctica earlier in the UT day. Quiet conditions are expected
to prevail for most of 26-Jul, with unsettled conditions later
in the day and into 27-28 Jul as the effects of an equatorial
coronal hole take hold.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jul 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jul 60 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
27 Jul 60 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
28 Jul 60 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 23 July
and is current for 24-26 Jul. MUFs were depressed over much of
the Australian region over the last 24 hours, more so in the
north. Mildly depressed MUFs are likely for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 51200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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