[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 23 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 24 09:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Some growth in a spot group
in the southeast. Activity for the next 3 days is expected to
be very low to low. The solar wind varied between 300-350 km/s.
The IMF Bz component was positive for much of the UT day, then
varying between +/-4 nT from around 17 UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11100121
Cocos Island 2 11100121
Darwin 3 12100122
Townsville 3 21100122
Learmonth 4 11100132
Alice Springs 2 10000121
Norfolk Island 3 13100011
Culgoora 2 11100112
Gingin 2 10000122
Camden 1 11000111
Canberra 1 10000111
Launceston 1 11000111
Hobart 1 00000111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000010
Casey 3 12100122
Mawson 18 21110156
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 3110 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet in the Australian
region over the last 24 hours, with some unsettled conditions
in the last few hours and storm level conditions developing in
Antarctica. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 24-25
Jul, returning to quiet by 26-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-fair
25 Jul Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-fair
26 Jul Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jul 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jul 45 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
25 Jul 45 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
26 Jul 45 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 23 July
and is current for 24-26 Jul. MUFs were depressed throughout
the entire Australasian region for most of the day, more pronounced
at low latitudes. Nighttime enhancements were observed in Perth.
Depressed MUFs are likely for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 58700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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