[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 23 09:30:28 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Activity for the next 3
days is expected to be very low to low. The solar wind varied
between 280-380 km/s, and the IMF Bz component between +/-5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 21002001
Cocos Island 2 20011001
Darwin 2 21002001
Townsville 3 21102012
Learmonth 3 21002002
Alice Springs 1 10002001
Norfolk Island 1 20001001
Culgoora 2 10002011
Gingin 2 20002001
Camden 2 11002001
Canberra 1 10002000
Launceston 2 11002001
Hobart 2 11002001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00002000
Casey 4 22112101
Mawson 12 52111114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1100 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jul 4 Quiet
24 Jul 4 Quiet
25 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-fair
24 Jul Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-fair
25 Jul Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jul 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jul 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
24 Jul 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
25 Jul 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 34 was issued
on 21 July and is current for 21-23 Jul. MUFs were depressed
throughout the entire Australasian region for most of the day,
more pronounced at low latitudes. Some mild nighttime enhancements
were observed in southern Australia. Similar conditions are likely
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 276 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 19800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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