[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 22 09:30:18 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
The background X-ray flux has increased slightly, with some activity
on the east limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Activity
for the next 3 days is expected to be very low to low. The solar
wind remained below 300km/s, with the IMF Bz component negative
since around 07 UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 00001111
Cocos Island 1 -1000210
Darwin 1 00000111
Townsville 1 10001111
Learmonth 1 10011110
Alice Springs 1 00000111
Norfolk Island 0 00000011
Culgoora 2 11001111
Gingin 2 00001220
Camden 1 01001111
Canberra 0 00001100
Launceston 2 10002111
Hobart 2 10002110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 1 00100210
Mawson 8 21101243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1000 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jul 5 Quiet
23 Jul 3 Quiet
24 Jul 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal-poor Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal-poor Normal-fair Normal
23 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
24 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jul 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jul 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
23 Jul 60 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
24 Jul 60 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 34 was issued
on 21 July and is current for 21-23 Jul. MUFs were depressed
throughout the entire Australasian region for much of the day,
more pronounced at low latitudes. Some mild nighttime enhancements
were observed in southern Australia. Similar conditions are likely
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 280 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 16500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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