[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 19 09:30:18 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels during the
last 24 hours. Solar wind speed stayed between 320 and 340 km/s
and the Bz component of IMF stayed close to normal value. No
significant variation to solar activity is expected in the next
three days. Very low levels of solar activity may be expected
on 19, 20 and 21 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 1 01000002
Learmonth 0 10000000
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Norfolk Island 0 11000000
Culgoora 1 11110001
Gingin 0 10100000
Camden 1 21100000
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 11010000
Hobart 0 10010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 3 22210000
Mawson 3 21110003
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1210 0122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jul 5 Quiet
20 Jul 5 Quiet
21 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions stayed at quiet levels today.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected on 19, 20 and 21 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were generally depressed for most of the day, more
pronounced at low latitudes. This is again due to the lack of
ionising EUV and X-rays from the low spot count on the solar
disc. This is likely to continue for the next few days. Minor
to mild MUF depressions may be observed on 19, 20 and 21 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jul 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were generally depressed throughout the entire
Australasian region for most of the day, more pronounced at low
latitudes. This is again due to the lack of ionising EUV and
X-rays from the low spot count on the solar disc. This is likely
to continue for the next few days. Minor to mild MUF depressions
may be observed on 19, 20 and 21 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.9E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 398 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 92700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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